Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) Beats Q4 CY2025 Sales Expectations But Stock Drops
Online real estate marketplace Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) reported Q4 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations , with sales up 18.1% year on year to $654 million. Its GAAP profit of $0.01 per share was $0.03 above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy Zillow? Find out in our full research report.
Revenue: $654 million vs analyst estimates of $650.5 million (18.1% year-on-year growth, 0.5% beat)
EPS (GAAP): $0.01 vs analyst estimates of -$0.02 ($0.03 beat)
Adjusted EBITDA: $149 million vs analyst estimates of $151.5 million (22.8% margin, 1.6% miss)
Operating Margin: -1.7%, up from -12.5% in the same quarter last year
Free Cash Flow Margin: 6.7%, down from 15.9% in the same quarter last year
Market Capitalization: $13.12 billion
Founded by Expedia co-founders Lloyd Frink and Rich Barton, Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) is the leading U.S. online real estate marketplace.
Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can experience short-term success, but top-performing ones enjoy sustained growth for years. Zillow’s demand was weak over the last five years as its sales fell at a 5% annual rate. This wasn’t a great result and suggests it’s a low quality business.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new product or trend. Zillow’s annualized revenue growth of 15.2% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, but we were still disappointed by the results.
This quarter, Zillow reported year-on-year revenue growth of 18.1%, and its $654 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 0.5%.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 14.5% over the next 12 months, similar to its two-year rate. This projection is above average for the sector and implies its newer products and services will help sustain its recent top-line performance.
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Zillow’s operating margin has been trending up over the last 12 months, but it still averaged negative 4.8% over the last two years. This is due to its large expense base and inefficient cost structure.
In Q4, Zillow generated a negative 1.7% operating margin. The company's consistent lack of profits raise a flag.
Revenue trends explain a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Zillow’s full-year EPS flipped from negative to positive over the last five years. This is encouraging and shows it’s at a critical moment in its life.
In Q4, Zillow reported EPS of $0.01, up from negative $0.20 in the same quarter last year. This print easily cleared analysts’ estimates, and shareholders should be content with the results. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Zillow’s full-year EPS of $0.09 to grow 527%.
Revenue beat by a small amount, but adjusted EBITDA missed. Overall, this was a mixed quarter, and the stock traded down 5% to $51.68 immediately after reporting.
Big picture, is Zillow a buy here and now? We think that the latest quarter is just one piece of the longer-term business quality puzzle. Quality, when combined with valuation, can help determine if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.