Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver after January jobs report smashes expectations

US stocks pulled back from early gains to wobble on Wednesday, as investors digested a January jobs report that blew past expectations on a monthly basis — signaling resilience in the labor market and bolstering the case for interest rates to stay on hold — while showing a heavily revised 2025.

The blue chip-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped around 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell into the red by 0.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) wavered on the flatline, after all three indexes had gained steam in the early going.

After a bruising recent run of labor market data, the unexpectedly strong "Super Bowl of jobs reports" showed the US economy added 130,000 positions in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed on Wednesday, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.3% from 4.4%.

However, the bullish monthly data was counterbalanced by heavy revisions to 2025 numbers, which brought the year's payrolls growth at 181,000, down from the previously reported 584,000 additions. That represents the weakest annual job growth since 2003, outside of a recession.

Wednesday's surprise is feeding into bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, which had been bolstered by soft December retail data that revealed fresh signs of weakness in the economy. Markets are now pricing in a bigger possibility that the Fed will hold rates steady in the coming months, with over 40% expecting the central bank to now stand pat through June. Most traders are still pricing in two cuts by the end of the year.

Earnings season could provide further insight into the American consumer as well as Corporate America, with McDonald's (MCD) reporting after the bell, while Kraft Heinz (KHC) said in its earnings release Tuesday morning that it would pause its spin-off plans.

After the market close, Cisco's (CSCO) quarterly report comes as the tech stalwart takes on Nvidia (NVDA) for Big Tech spending with a new AI networking chip.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) briefly tipped above its record high closing price of 6,978.60 following the January jobs report that blew past expectations. But the benchmark index quickly turned lower as better-than-expected employment numbers increased bets that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady.

According to CME Group, traders placed a 94.1% chance that the Fed would keep rates in their current range of 3.5%-3.75% at the March meeting, up from 79.9% a day ago. Bets that the central bank would cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points scaled back from 20.1% to just 5.9%.

That also fueled a rise in Treasury yields on Wednesday morning. The 10-year yield (^TNX) rose 0.6% to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) climbed to 4.8%. The biggest gains were in short-term yields, with the five-year yield (^FVX) rising 4 basis points to 3.74%.

Oil prices climbed through Wednesday morning as traders evaluated the potential for escalation between the US and Iran as negotiations continue over Tehran's nuclear enrichment program.

Futures on the international pricing benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) climbed by more than 2.5% on Wednesday to cross $70.50, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) picked up 2.7% to cross $65.60.

On Tuesday morning, President Trump said he is thinking about sending a second US aircraft carrier to Middle Eastern waters, adding to the already sizable military armada positioned in the region. Trump's comments followed talks between the US and Iran in Oman last week.

Last year, US and Israeli forces launched a series of airstrikes against Iran's premier nuclear enrichment facility, and President Trump earlier this year threatened to intervene militarily in Iran if a violent crackdown that killed thousands of protesters wasn't abated.

Though Iran's uranium enrichment program, which would allow it to build nuclear weapons, is the primary focus of the talks between Washington and Tehran, Trump has also taken aim at Iran's ballistic missile program as he seeks to declaw the country's authoritarian regime.

Escalations between the two global powers could shock the oil market if Iran were to close or otherwise attempt to interfere with the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint that sees roughly 20 billion barrels of petroleum products traverse its waters every day.

While analysts told Yahoo Finance that a full closure of the Strait ranges from unlikely to impossible, the US Maritime Administration said in a briefing on Monday that ship captains should \\"remain as far as possible from Iran’s territorial sea without compromising navigational safety\\" after Iranian forces recently attempted to force ships into the country's territorial waters.

The US stock market pushed healthily into the green in the first minutes of open trading on Wednesday after an unexpectedly strong jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobs report found that the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.3% from 4.4%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped by 0.8%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.7% and the blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) picked up 0.6%, or 300 points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' January data release on Wednesday, while bullish on a monthly basis, reported heavy revisions to 2025 numbers, bringing the year's payrolls growth to 181,000 from the previously reported 584,000 additions.

On the corporate calendar, McDonald's (MCD) and Cisco (CSCO) will report after the bell, while Kraft Heinz (KHC) published fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell. Cisco's earnings are expected to give investors a read on the continued appetite for AI chip spending.

The US added 130,000 jobs in January, according to official data released Wednesday morning, far exceeding consensus expectations of 65,000 jobs added for the month.

In addition to the January numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised its total 2025 payrolls figure down to 184,000 jobs added for the year, far below the previously published 584,000 additions, which already marked the weakest increase since 2020, according to Bloomberg.

The unemployment rate was little changed in January, falling to 4.3% against expectations of it holding steady at 4.4%.

The data came as a surprise to the upside after market watchers had looked for a possible steep drop in employment numbers. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said earlier in the week that smaller job gains may be explained by a \\"productivity boom.\\"

Private data released last week indicated the labor market remained bruising in January for out-of-work Americans, with little in the way of new jobs.

The government’s monthly employment situation report, which includes both the unemployment rate and payroll growth, was meant to be published last Friday before it was delayed by the brief partial government shutdown.

That left market watchers and economists waiting a few extra days for what Bank of America Global Research dubbed the “Super Bowl of jobs reports” and economist Michael Madowitz of the Roosevelt Institute called #ConspiracyTheoryJobsday.

Shopify (SHOP) stock rose 11% before the bell on Wednesday after forecasting quarterly revenue above Wall Street estimates.

Reuters reports:

The ​company ​expects ​revenue to ‌rise at a low-thirties percentage rate in the first quarter, compared ‌with analysts' ​average ​estimate ​of a ‌25.2% rise, according ​to ​data compiled by LSEG.

Read more here.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) announced on Tuesday that it would pause its spin-off plans, with the company's new CEO, Steve Cahillane, saying that its \\"challenges are fixable and within our control.\\"

The company, which was set to spin off its meal business, Global Taste Elevation Co., and grocery business North American Grocery Co., plans to invest $600 million across marketing, sales, research and development, and pricing.

\\"We are confident in the opportunity ahead and believe this investment will accelerate our return to profitable growth,\\" said Steve Cahillane, who became CEO on Jan. 1 and previously led Kellanova, which successfully split from the Kellogg Company in 2023.

Shares fell more than 6% in premarket trading.

In its fourth quarter results, the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.67, a beat compared to the expected $0.61, per Bloomberg consensus data. Revenue came in slightly lower at $6.35 billion, compared with the $6.37 billion expected.

Prices increased 0.5%, slightly below expectations of a 0.79% increase.

For 2026, the company expects organic net sales to be down 1.5% to 3.5%. Wall Street expected 2026 annual organic revenue to be down 0.56%. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $1.98 to $2.10, whereas Wall Street forecast $2.50.

The Labor Department will publish much-anticipated jobs data for January on Wednesday morning, as well as sweeping revisions to 2025 numbers that could show far fewer new positions were added to the US economy than previously thought.

Yahoo Finance's Emma Ockerman lays out what to watch:

Private data released last week indicated the labor market remained bruising in January for out-of-work Americans, with little in the way of new jobs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate a median gain of about 68,000 jobs in January’s report, though the projections varied widely: The highest saw 135,000 more jobs, while the lowest saw a loss of 10,000 roles.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4% when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

As for 2025, preliminary data for the 12 months ending in March last year showed 911,000 fewer jobs being created than initially reported. Numbers for that period will be updated Wednesday, in addition to data changes for more recent months, likely leaving a dimmer picture of the 2025 job market.

... [The] revisions, which account for state unemployment insurance tax records for the period from April 2024 through March 2025 and will also include changes to more recent monthly payroll growth, could trigger reactions from both the market and the Trump administration.

Read more here.

Ford's stock inched higher before the bell as investors assessed its earnings report.

Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports:

Ford (F) reported fourth quarter results Tuesday after the bell that missed expectations, with charges stemming from its EV business resulting in a net loss for the quarter and the year.

Ford reported Q4 automotive revenue of $42.40 billion vs. $42.40 billion expected, per Bloomberg consensus, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 vs. $0.19 expected, on adjusted EBIT of $1 billion vs. $1.16 billion.

But Ford posted a fourth quarter and full-year net loss of $11.1 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, which reflected the impact of special items, the company said. Ford's full-year adjusted EBIT of $6.8 billion came in near its forecast of around $7 billion but missed estimates of $8.86 billion. Adjusted free cash flow came in at $3.5 billion for the year, at the midpoint of Ford's projection.

Ford said it would have had full-year EBIT in the mid $7 billion range if not for a change the White House communicated to Ford regarding tariff-offsets in December, which ended up adding $900 million more in tariff costs.

Read more here.

Humana (HUM) stock fell 7% before the bell on Wednesday after forecasting annual profit below analysts' estimates. The health insurer has been affected by lower quality ratings for its Medicare Advantage plans for older adults.

Moderna (MRNA) stock sank 10% during premarket hours on Wednesday after the FDA refused to review its application to sell a new flu vaccine.

Palantir (PLTR) stock dipped lower on Wednesday. The data analytics company's shares have fallen more than 20% over the past month.

Here's a look at some stocks trending on Yahoo Finance following their after-hours earnings reports:

Robinhood (HOOD) shares tumbled 7% after the brokerage and banking platform provider reported better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter, but missed estimates on several other metrics. Retail trading buoyed the company during the quarter, offsetting weakness in crypto revenue.

Lyft (LYFT) stock pulled back over 17% in premarket trading after its first quarter outlook and surprise 2025 operating loss dented expectations for the ride-hailing company's comeback story.

Mattel (MAT) shares tanked over 30% before the bell after the toymaker reported wide misses on Wall Street expectations for Q4 profit and revenue. Its 2026 forward guidance also fell short.

Cloudflare (NET) stock jumped 14% after the tech company posted a big Q4 revenue beat. It also offered Q1 and 2026 sales guidance that topped Wall Street estimates, betting on an AI buildout boost to demand for its cloud services.

Read more coverage of corporate earnings here.

On Wall Street, rising AI fears keep pummeling shares of companies at risk of being caught on the wrong side of it all, from small software makers to big wealth-management firms, per Bloomberg.

A tax-strategy took from start-up Altruist spurred the latest sell-off on Tuesday, hitting the likes of Charles Schwab and Raymond James. Some of the stocks suffered their deepest fall since the April trade-war market meltdown.

Bloomberg reports:

The advances in AI have been at the forefront of Wall Street over the past few years, with tech stocks leading the charge. As the rally pushed share prices to record highs, questions persisted about whether it was a bubble about to burst — or would set off a productivity boom that would remake corporate America.

But since early last week, a trickle of AI product rollouts triggered a stark sea change. Instead of focusing on picking the winners, investors instead are quickly trying to avoid getting caught owning any company with the slightest risk of being displaced.

“I have no idea what’s next,” said Will Rhind, the CEO of Graniteshares Advisors.

“The story from last year was we all believe in AI — but we’re searching for the use case,” he said. “And when we keep discovering the use cases that seemingly are more and more powerful and more and more compelling, it’s now leading to disruption.”

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has just drawn fresh support from some of its largest holders, though the return of demand remains narrow enough to raise doubts about whether it marks a recovery or mere damage control.

So-called whale wallets accumulated about 53,000 coins in the past week, their biggest buying spree since November, after weeks of heavy selling. Those kinds of purchases helped steady prices after a steep drawdown, even as most other investors stayed on the sidelines.

Data from industry research firm Glassnode show that wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin added more than $4 billion worth of the token over the period, interrupting months of divestment that have left Bitcoin roughly 40% below its October peak.

“It does slow down any downfall,” said Brett Singer, head of sales at Glassnode. “But we still need to see more money coming into the market.”

Read more here.

Reuters reports:

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will not review Moderna's (MRNA) approval application for its influenza vaccine, the company said on Tuesday, sending ‌its shares down 8% in extended trading.

In its refusal-to-file letter, the FDA said ‌Moderna's choice to compare mRNA-1010 to an already licensed standard-dose seasonal influenza was the sole reason for the refusal ​to initiate a review of the application.

The letter specifically cited the lack of an \\"adequate and well-controlled\\" study with a comparator arm that \\"does not reflect the best-available standard of care,\\" Moderna said.

\\"This decision by CBER (Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research), which did not identify any safety or efficacy concerns with ‌our product, does not further our ⁠shared goal of enhancing America's leadership in developing innovative medicines,\\" said CEO Stephane Bancel.

Read more here.

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