The bull market has not yet reached its top, according to an analysis of the S&P 500 SPX sectors’ relative strength. But there are dark clouds on the horizon.

We can draw these conclusions because of the tendency for certain sectors to perform well at the end of a bull market and others to perform poorly. To derive clues about where we stand at any given time, we need to compare this historical tendency to where the sectors stand currently.

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There’s no immediate cause for alarm. Compare the sectors’ performance over the past three months with how they have performed on average over the last three months of every bull market since 1970 (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research). It turns out that there is no statistically detectable correlation between these two rankings. That’s good news, assuming that sector relative strength at the end of the current bull market will be similar to what it was at the end of past bull markets.

This upbeat conclusion is based on looking in the rearview mirror. But what about later this year? What’s the likelihood that the sector ranking in several months will be more correlated with how the sectors performed at the end of past bear markets?

No two bull markets end precisely the same way. But their tops often have similarities. I’ve employed a similar analysis on several occasions in recent years. With few exceptions, the analysis correctly assessed that a market top was not imminent. The most recent such occasion was the end of June 2025, when I concluded that “the final top of this bull market is at least three months away.”

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There’s no way of knowing for sure, of course. But the stocks most recommended by the best-performing investment newsletters provide some early warning signals. These newsletters are good bets to continue their winning ways, and if they do, the stocks they’re recommending (and the sectors they represent) are likely to outperform those they find less attractive.

Unfortunately for the bulls, there is a strong correlation between the ranking of the newsletters’ most popular sectors and the sectors’ average ranking at the end of bull markets.

On average over the last three months of all bull markets since 1970, Utilities, Energy and Communication Services were the worst performers. Right now, those three are the newsletters’ least-liked sectors, suggesting they will lag the others.

Moreover, two of the newsletters’ three current favorites typically top the sector rankings at the end of bull markets: Health Care and Information Technology.

On the assumption that the newsletters will continue their winning ways, this means the sector relative-strength ranking later this year could be disturbingly similar to other bull-market endings. That, in turn, suggests a bear market could begin later this year.

In the meantime, the current sector relative strength ranking suggests the bull market is alive and well. With that in mind, below is a list of the stocks that (a) are in one of the newsletters’ three most-recommended sectors and (b) are each recommended by at least two monitored newsletters.

Sector

Truist Financial Corp. TFC

Financials

Bank of America Corp. BAC

Financials

Bank New York Mellon Corp. BK

Financials

Capital One Financial Corp. COF

Financials

FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS

Financials

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB

Financials

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS

Financials

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM

Financials

Kinsale Capital Group Inc. KNSL

Financials

MetLife Inc. MET

Financials

Morgan Stanley MS

Financials

M&T Bank Corp. MTB

Financials

Bank OZK OZK

Financials

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. PNC

Financials

PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL

Financials

Regions Financial Corp. RF

Financials

Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW

Financials

U.S. Bancorp USB

Financials

Abbott Laboratories ABT

Health Care

Amgen Inc. AMGN

Health Care

Bristol Myers Squibb Co. BMY

Health Care

CVS Health Corp. CVS

Health Care

Medtronic PLC MDT

Health Care

Merck & Co. MRK

Health Care

Pfizer Inc. PFE

Health Care

Adobe Inc. ADBE

Information Technology

Apple Inc. AAPL

Information Technology

Broadcom Inc. AVGO

Information Technology

First Solar Inc. FSLR

Information Technology

Microsoft Corp. MSFT

Information Technology

Nvidia Corp. NVDA

Information Technology

Skyworks Solutions Inc. SWKS

Information Technology

Source: Hulbert Ratings

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at

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