Argentina’s state-controlled energy company YPF SA is preparing to maintain heavy investment in the Vaca Muerta shale basin even if oil prices fall this year, as President Javier Milei’s administration pushes to transform the country into a global energy powerhouse.

Chief Executive Horacio Marin said the company has structured its portfolio to withstand lower crude prices without cutting capital expenditure. “Our capex doesn’t change whether a barrel is worth $70 or $55,” Marin said in Buenos Aires, adding that 2026 marks the final year of YPF’s transition before accelerating growth.

YPF invested $3.5 billion upstream in the 12 months through September and intends to sustain similar spending levels to maintain momentum in Vaca Muerta. The company is targeting more than 200,000 barrels per day of shale oil production this year, up from 170,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025, following aggressive cost reductions and asset sales that raised about $1 billion. A pending exit from gas distributor Metrogas SA is also underway.

The shale formation is central to Milei’s strategy to stabilize Argentina’s economy through rising energy exports. The government recently expanded its RIGI investment incentive program to include shale oil drilling, offering tax and currency benefits for projects exceeding $600 million. The move is expected to accelerate development and improve competitiveness.

Marin said the incentives could attract U.S. shale producers seeking growth opportunities beyond the Permian Basin. Continental Resources has already entered Vaca Muerta, and Marin confirmed informal discussions with other U.S. operators.

Beyond oil, YPF is advancing a major liquefied natural gas export project alongside Italy’s Eni and Abu Dhabi’s XRG. The venture aims to ship at least 12 million tons of LNG annually and will require more than $14 billion in financing.

YPF shares traded in New York have climbed sharply since Milei took office, and Marin has set a long-term target of further gains as Argentina’s shale ambitions gather pace.

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