Gold Steadies Near $5,000 as Iran Risks, Fed Outlook in Focus

Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce, after two days of gains, as traders weighed rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump said 10 to 15 days were “pretty much” all he would allow for negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran, as American forces amassed in the region in their biggest deployment since before the Iraq war in 2003. Bullion rose more than 2% over the previous two sessions, though is headed for a modest weekly decline, with some Asian markets offline due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

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The path of US interest rates – currently uncertain – will also be a key driver for gold, which typically benefits from lower borrowing costs. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran dialed back calls for how deeply rates should be cut this year, with recent data reflecting a stronger US economy than he had expected, Dow Jones reported.

The gold market has been unusually choppy since a historic rout at the turn of the month, which saw bullion snap back from a record peak above $5,595 an ounce almost to $4,400 in just two days. A wave of speculative buying that accelerated in January took a multiyear rally to breaking point, though the factors that underpinned earlier growth remain largely intact, including a wider move away from sovereign bonds and currencies.

Major banks including BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have said they expect prices to resume their upward trend later this year. Central banks, a major driver of gold’s rally, remain keen to build up their holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risk, Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note. This is despite elevated volatility that weighed on purchases in December.

Bullion’s value as a haven has come into focus again given the tensions around Iran. A major strike against the Islamic Republic — where leaders are anxious about regime stability following widespread unrest — would risk entangling the US in its third war of choice in the Middle East since 1991. Oil steadied near a six-month high on Friday.

Meanwhile, Newmont Corp. — the world’s biggest gold miner — announced Thursday it expects to produce roughly 10% less of the metal this year, due partly to planned upgrades at some of the mines that it manages.

Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $5,001.36 at 1:15 p.m. in Singapore. Silver slipped 0.2% to $78.32. Platinum dropped 0.1% and palladium was 0.4% lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, rose 0.1% and was up 0.9% for the week.

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