There’s something different about the feel of the economic data of late.

Inflation is slowing. The jobs market is not exactly on fire, but companies also are not laying off workers, as the decline in the unemployment rate and Thursday’s report showing a drop in first-time jobless claims attest.

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The ISM manufacturing report rose to its highest level in more than three years, even if the actual comments made by purchasing managers were more negative than positive. Industrial production rose at the fastest rate in 11 months.

And then there’s the venerable Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the longest-running survey from a regional Fed bank, polling executives on conditions in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

The reading for February, released Thursday, not only beat expectations -– coming in at 16.3 on a scale of -100 to +100 –- but the current general activity component saw its first back-to-back increase since late 2024.

“Overall the survey delivered a Goldilocks signal of decent growth and disinflation,” says Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier, associate strategist at BCA Research. A Goldilocks economy, as the fairy tale goes, is not too fast and not too slow.

And the point is the Philadelphia Fed data fits with the trend showing improving momentum across both soft (survey) and hard indicators after the slowdown last year.

“Historically, such positive momentum has coincided with equity outperformance versus bonds,” he says. The firm’s stance toward stocks is still neutral, however. He says the firm is waiting to see how volatility in the rates market responds to re-accelerating growth before recommending investors own more equities.

But he does say investors should favor cyclical and value-focused sectors over growth, which is how things have played out this year. Vanguard’s value ETF VTV has gained 8% this year, while Vanguard’s growth ETF VUG has declined 5%.

U.S. stock-market futures ES00 NQ00 declined after the wave of economic data. Gold’s GC00 back above $5,000.

Key asset performance

Last

5d

1m

YTD

1y

S&P 500

6861.89

0.43%

-0.74%

0.24%

12.17%

Nasdaq Composite

22,682.73

0.38%

-3.21%

-2.41%

13.63%

10-year Treasury

4.073

2.10

-16.00

-9.90

-35.70

Gold

5046.4

-0.34%

1.27%

16.49%

71.08%

Oil

66.01

5.09%

7.68%

14.98%

-6.02%

Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points

The U.S. is considering a limited strike on Iran to pressure the country into a nuclear deal, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Fourth-quarter GDP came in at a 1.4% annualized rate, slower than the 2.5% forecasted.

The PCE price index for December, and the core, came in hotter than forecast as they each rose 0.4% on a monthly basis. The flash PMI, new-home sales and consumer sentiment reports are due after the open.

The U.S. Supreme Court could issue a ruling on the legality of the Trump administration’s tariff policy.

Chemicals company LyondellBasell Industries LYB is cutting its dividend in half, saying markets are expected to remain challenged.

Blue Owl Capital OWL late Thursday pushed back at media coverage of its decision to permanently freeze withdrawals from a private-capital fund, arguing that its move to return 30% of capital in the first quarter is faster than a previous process of giving back money to investors.

Ticketmaster parent Live Nation Entertainment LUV reported stronger-than-forecast sales and said early ticket sales so far this year were up double digits,

The loss-making online home-buying platform Opendoor Technologies OPEN reported much stronger-than-forecast revenue.

Amazon service was taken down by AI coding bot.

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Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs, says he’s still a dollar bear even as the U.S. dollar index DXY has bounced 2% from its late January lows. He shows the dollar, on a trade-weighed basis, against both a basket of developed and emerging market countries. “Even though the G10 Dollar has rallied, I see this as noise. The EM Dollar remains near its recent low, which in my mind signals further Dollar weakness ahead,” he writes.

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

Ticker

Security name

NVDA

Nvidia

TSLA

Tesla

GME

GameStop

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

INFY

Infosys

AMZN

Amazon.com

PLTR

Palantir Technologies

MSFT

Microsoft

MU

Micron Technology

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

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