(Bloomberg) -- A key interest rate is rising globally, and the chief culprit appears to be the declining appeal of government bonds for safety and liquidity, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers.

The so-called “natural rate of interest” — the short-term interest rate for an economy at full strength with stable inflation — has seen a “statistically significant rise” since 2019, climbing about a percentage point in the US and other advanced economies, New York Fed researchers Marco Del Negro, Elena Elbarmi and Michael Pham said in a blog post.

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While there are other contributing factors, waning interest in government bonds for safety accounts for as much as half of the rate’s rise, according to the researchers. Evident in the compression of US corporate bond spreads, the shift has “a variety of reasons, possibly including the surge in government debt across advanced economies.”

Though it exists only in theory, the rate, termed r-star in economic analysis, matters because it’s a factor in central bank decisions on market interest rates. Jerome Powell, chair of the US central bank, speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2018, famously said it was akin to a major celestial star relied on by sailors for navigation.

Subjected to statistical analysis, both the US rate and its global counterpart show a significant rise in the post-Covid period, the post says. Previously — from 1990 to 2019 — “investors’ appetite for safety (and liquidity) drove government bond across advanced economies down,” arguably taking neutral rates along for the ride.

Other plausible drivers of the interest rate’s rise in the post-Covid era, according to the researchers, include the prospect of an AI-driven rise in productivity growth. It also may anticipate surges in debt-to-GDP ratios of economies facing demographic transition, higher expected military spending, or both, they said.

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