Markets have largely learned to downplay conflict-driven oil shocks, with crude prices often recovering quickly after an initial pop. But analysts say the most recent Iran strikes could be different.

Oil prices have surged by roughly 15% since the US and Israel began a major airstrike campaign against Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and provoking a violent and chaotic response from Iran that has engulfed the Middle East.

Futures tied to Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) jumped more than 9% Tuesday morning before paring gains.

It's unclear whether oil futures will continue to rise. In past conflicts, such as the 12-day war last year between Israel and Iran, prices jumped but fell back down to their previous levels within days. But unlike past flare-ups, the current escalation has already triggered concrete disruptions in shipping and insurance markets, tightening flows even before any confirmed physical damage to major oil infrastructure.

"Recent conflicts have generated a more muted response in oil prices, refining margins, and energy equities," Mizuho equity analyst Nitin Kumar said in a client note published on Monday. "But this time may be different."

Notably, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and has warned it would fire on any vessel attempting to transit the vital shipping route. Video footage published by Al Jazeera on Monday afternoon showed an oil tanker ablaze in the strait.

The move from the Iranian military marks a materially different phase in the conflict. Attacks such as these have a "big psychological impact on the market," Ben Cahill, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told Yahoo Finance.

While Iran's initial retaliation focused primarily on military assets and strategic targets, recent strikes have increasingly impacted energy-linked facilities across the Gulf, leading Saudi Arabia to shut down its largest refinery and Qatar to halt liquid natural gas (LNG) production.

The IRGC's latest position — attempting a full closure of the strait, something Iran has never successfully enforced, and threatening to fire on vessels that cross — further expands the risk premium that has already brought tanker traffic through the waterway to a near standstill. Five vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have now been struck, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency.

Analysts said markets are no longer pricing in just geopolitical risk but also the possibility of a sustained disruption to global energy trade. In a note published Sunday, JPMorgan said its base-case assumption that an unprecedented disruption would remain "improbable" had failed after vessel transit through the strait fell to near zero for the first time in its modern history.

"This episode forces a reassessment of geopolitical risk and the resilience of global energy trade," JPMorgan analysts wrote.

Roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil, including nearly all exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Existing bypass pipelines — designed in part for situations like this — can divert only about 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, according to energy analysts who spoke with Yahoo Finance, leaving the majority of exports without an alternative route in the event of a prolonged closure.

JPMorgan estimates Gulf producers could sustain output for just over three weeks before storage constraints would force mandatory production shut-ins, where production must be halted to avoid overwhelming storage capacity.

Even without confirmed infrastructure damage, shipping and insurance markets have effectively begun self-restricting traffic. Major operators have suspended Hormuz transits, while war-risk premiums have surged and coverage has become conditional or unavailable for some vessels, according to maritime briefings viewed by Yahoo Finance.

That dynamic alone can tighten supply by delaying cargoes, rerouting ships, and raising delivered energy costs, even if underlying oil production is so far unhindered. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate crude is already embedding a real-time risk premium equivalent to a multiweek halt in Hormuz flows, with additional upside if markets begin to price in a longer-lasting disruption.

If the disruptions persist beyond several weeks, Brent crude could trade in the $100 to $120 per barrel range, according to JPMorgan. And if prices spike too sharply, demand destruction could cap the rally, particularly if higher fuel costs begin to weigh on global growth.

While brief supply disruptions have historically produced sharp but short-lived price surges, a sustained freeze in Hormuz traffic — particularly one that forces Gulf producers to shut in output — would mark a fundamentally different shock.

"The risks related to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown can trigger rapid near-term moves across commodities and energy subsectors," Mizuho's Kumar wrote.

"The durability of those impacts will depend on whether physical disruptions persist or fade amid broader macro and supply-demand dynamic."

Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.

Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance