Today's Federal Reserve decision lands on top of a crowded global bet.

The Federal Open Market Committee isn't expected to make any big waves today. But investors will be laser-focused on Chair Powell's tone during the press conference.

Bank of America's March Global Fund Manager Survey, released Tuesday, showed that big institutional investors are the most overweight in emerging market stocks since February 2021 and in commodities since April 2022, while remaining underweight the US dollar.

That puts the greenback at the center of today's decision. Powell doesn't have to move rates to move markets.

If Powell sounds hawkish and the US dollar index pushes back above 100, that could pressure the trades investors have piled into abroad. A softer tone would ease that pressure and give emerging market stocks and commodities more room.

The level to watch on the dollar index is 100. A clean break above it tightens the screws. Another rejection keeps the global risk trade alive.

Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.

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