The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected.

Along with its second policy decision of the year, the Fed also published its first Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026, which showed that officials maintained a median forecast for one rate cut in 2026. In December, the median Federal Open Market Committee member also projected one rate cut this year.

Markets were closely watching the decision for clues about how the war in Iran might change the Fed's calculus for future rate cuts. The recent spike in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, has complicated the Fed's picture, as inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target and the labor market slows.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to underscore that the Fed will remain on hold while it monitors the oil shock when he begins his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET today, one of the last press conferences of his term.

Here are the latest updates and analysis on the Fed's policy decision.

While the effects of the energy supply shock have been top of mind, Fed Chair Powell offered a reminder that the US is still working through tariff inflation as well.

\\"We're well aware of the performance of inflation over the last few years and how a series of shocks have interrupted progress that we've made over time,\\" Powell said.

\\"The thing that's really important that we see this year is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects on prices of tariffs ... go through the economy,\\" Powell said.

He added that the Fed won't be able to look through energy-driven inflation as transitory until it has \\"checked that box\\" of containing tariff inflation.

\\"A series of shocks have interrupted progress that we've made over time,\\" Fed Chair Powell says. pic.twitter.com/xOZupBl31r

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) March 18, 2026

Taking a measured tone on the impacts of the conflict roiling the Middle East, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his prepared remarks, “The implications of developments in the Middle East on the US economy are uncertain.”

In the near term, energy prices will push up headline inflation, but it's still \\"too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy,\\" Powell said.

The FOMC decided to leave its policy rate unchanged.

Powell: \\"The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.\\" pic.twitter.com/yuHWzGAAKk

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) March 18, 2026

The Fed's headline forecasts get most of the attention, but the SEP also reveals the range of projections offered by Fed officials.

Not surprisingly, the range of what officials deem the appropriate path for rates this year is wide — at least one Fed official thinks we need to see four cuts in 2026.

But what really stands out to us is the outlook for the labor market.

Given the slowdown we're seeing in hiring and the softness that appears to be spreading in some pockets of the white-collar workforce, that no Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to have a 5-handle this year is, frankly, a rosy outlook.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has started speaking at the FOMC press conference.

We're listening for Powell's comments on the effects of the war in Iran on inflation expectations, the job market, housing, and the path of monetary policy looking ahead.

Powell is likely to be somewhat reserved in his remarks, however, given that the Fed underscored uncertainty about the economic outlook in its policy statement.

Watch the press conference live below or here on YouTube.

The Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement that accompanied the rate decision showed minor changes from January's statement.

Notably, the FOMC added a line about the war in the Middle East, stating that the implications of the conflict \\"are uncertain.\\" The Fed also changed how it characterized the unemployment rate, opting to describe it as \\"little changed\\" instead of showing \\"signs of stabilization.\\"

Here are the key changes, with additions bolded and subtractions in strikethrough text:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has shown some signs of stabilization been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it expects to cut rates once in 2026 while officials anticipate faster economic growth and hotter inflation this year than previously forecast.

The central bank's latest policy decision on Wednesday — which saw the Fed keep rates unchanged in a range of 3.5%-3.75% — also came alongside the release of the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The SEP includes forecasts for growth, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates from members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

In December, the last time Fed officials published their outlooks, forecasts called for one 0.25% rate cut in 2026, followed by two rate cuts of the same size in 2027. Those forecasts were unchanged this month, and a new outlook for 2028 sees the Fed keeping rates steady in a 3%-3.25% range two years out.

Wednesday's SEP showed that Fed officials now see inflation on both a headline and \\"core\\" basis standing at 2.7% at the end of this year. The Fed targets inflation that averages 2%. In December, the central bank expected core inflation — which strips out the more volatile costs of food and energy — to reach 2.5% by the end of 2026. Headline inflation, which includes all categories, was expected to reach 2.4% by the end of this year.

Economic growth forecasts also rose for 2026, with GDP now expected to grow 2.4% this year, up from a forecast for 2.3% growth as of December.

Notably, Fed officials don't foresee considerable further weakening in the labor market, with the unemployment expected to remain at 4.4% at the end of this year.

Read more here.

US equities ticked down slightly in the minutes after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold rates steady at a target range to 3.5% to 3.75%.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded down by 0.6% on the session, while the blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.9%. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.5%.

Yields on 10-year Treasurys (^TNX) ticked up as investors priced in higher rates for longer, picking up 2.4 basis points on the session. The yield on -year Treasurys (^FVX) picked up 3.9 basis points.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday at the conclusion of its March meeting. The decision was widely expected, as the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode amid a moderating labor market and sticky inflation above officials' target.

In its Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the \\"dot plot\\", Fed officials penciled in one cut for 2026.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take the lectern at 2:30 p.m. ET to offer remarks on the economy and monetary policy. Markets will be listening closely for commentary on inflation expectations, as central bankers around the world face a cloudier outlook from higher energy costs.

Roughly 15 minutes out from what is going to be a closely watched Fed decision, even though the market has formed a consensus that rates will remain unchanged, oil prices are holding strong several dollars per barrel above where they opened Wednesday.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, are up roughly 3% from where they opened at 12 a.m. ET to trade above $104 per barrel. Those on US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) are up 5% to trade above $97 per barrel.

The big question for the Fed is whether it sees the Middle Eastern energy crisis as a transitory shock to be \\"looked through\\" or as a legitimate, long-lasting shock that can meaningfully move up headline inflation, bleed into core inflation, and ultimately stunt growth down the line.

Happy Fed Day to all who celebrate.

Today’s FOMC meeting lands on top of a crowded global bet.

BofA’s March Global Fund Manager Survey shows that big institutional investors are the most overweight in emerging market stocks since February 2021 and commodities since April 2022, while still underweight in the US dollar.

That puts the greenback at the center of today’s decision. Powell does not have to move rates to move markets.

If he sounds hawkish and the US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) pushes back above 100, that could pressure the trades investors have piled into abroad. A softer tone would ease that pressure and give emerging markets stocks and commodities more room.

The level to watch is 100 on the dollar index. A clean break above it tightens the screws. Another rejection keeps the global risk trade alive.

After cutting interest rates three times in 2025, the Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% in its first meeting of the year, signaling a more cautious, wait-and-see approach. But how long will the Fed hold rates at the current level?

Yahoo Finance's Ivana Pino explains that while the Fed doesn’t necessarily announce its plans ahead of time, there are a few factors experts look at to forecast potential changes to the federal funds rate. She writes:

Economic experts monitor the economy's health closely and formulate their own ideas about the Fed’s next move based on the data they have available. For example, the latest dot plot published by the Fed shows that a single rate cut in 2026 is probable. However, that cut may not come until later in the year; CME’s FedWatch tool predicts a nearly 100% chance that the federal funds rate will remain the same following the Fed’s next meeting in March.

“The path of [the federal funds rate] in 2026 will be influenced by several factors, with inflation and the labor market crucial items,” said William Connor, CFA, CFP, and partner at Sax Wealth Advisors. “There is a segment of economists whose work shows that monetary policy is overly restrictive and needs to be lowered to better support economic growth.”

Connor explained that slowing inflation and concerns surrounding the labor market make reductions to the federal funds rate likely in 2026. “The number and scope of any cuts will be data-dependent — higher inflation rates and/or stronger economic growth lessens the probability of cuts, while weakness in the labor market and/or continued drops in the rate of inflation would make more cuts likely,” he said.

Read more here.

The Bank of Canada kept interest rates steady at 2.25% on Wednesday, as widely expected.

Canada's central bank, like others around the world, is facing a murkier outlook since the war in Iran broke out. Ongoing uncertainty around the renegotiation of the US–Mexico-Canada Agreement also adds to the uncertainty.

\\"The war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy,\\" the BoC statement said, as reported by Yahoo Finance's John MacFarlane. \\"The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.\\"

Read the latest live updates on the Bank of Canada decision and press conference here.

US producer prices rose more than twice as fast as expected in February, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in February over the previous month, up from January's 0.5% gain and more than double economists' expectations for an increase of 0.3%.

Excluding the more volatile food and energy costs, producer prices advanced by 0.5% over the previous month, outpacing the 0.3% growth economists had predicted but below the previous month's gain of 0.8%.

On a year-over-year basis, headline prices rose by 3.4%, above estimates of 3% and the previous month's 2.9% year-on-year increase. Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose 3.9% year over year, hotter than the 3.7% estimate and the previous month's 3.6%.

Inflation will be top of mind for Fed officials today as they weigh the surge in energy prices from the Iran war against potential growth risks down the line. Fed officials are widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the conclusion of their policy meeting on Wednesday.

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban writes in today's Morning Brief newsletter:

US central bankers, who will announce their next interest rate decision later today, face a policy dilemma: rising pricing pressures on one side, and slowing economic growth on the other.

As DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe wrote in a note this week, the recent spike in oil prices “will certainly” upend the low hire-low fire dynamic “if it persists long enough to cause recession concerns among public and private businesses.\\"

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen sharply since June, dipping below 1x, meaning that there are more people looking for work than there are open positions.

At 0.9x, it's still above the long-run average of 0.7x, she noted.

\\"While this ratio does not yet signal a labor market/consumer-led recession, it has come down quickly and bears watching in the months ahead, given rising oil prices and recession worries.”

The Fed playbook calls for lowering rates if weak growth and a flagging labor market were the main problems at hand. But the Fed faces the conundrum of defending against two potential problems at once — each calling for different solutions.

Read more here.

In addition to the Federal Reserve, several other global central banks are in focus this week as they are expected to deliver policy decisions and address the economic fallout from the Middle East war.

\\"The supply shock is resulting in a market lowering growth expectations and increasing inflation expectations,\\" Capital analyst Kyle Rodda told my colleague Jake Conley. \\"That's manifesting in doubts about future profitability and the path forward for global interest rates.\\"

Here's an overview of at the major policy decisions unfolding this week:

Reserve Bank of Australia: The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% on Tuesday as policymakers viewed the war in the Middle East as adding to inflation already deemed too high. For more details on the decision, read Yahoo Finance Australia's coverage here.

Bank of Canada: Canada's central bank is expected to continue to keep borrowing costs at 2.25% on Wednesday as the country navigates moderating growth and the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, as well as the global oil shock.

European Central Bank: The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday, March 19, despite concerns of rising eurozone inflation. ECB policymakers are expected to offer assurances that the central bank won't allow another inflation shock like the one experienced in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Bank of England: The BOE is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday. Just two weeks ago, the United Kingdom's central bank was expected to deliver its first of two interest rate cuts of the year, but that calculus changed after data released Friday showed economic growth stagnated in January.

Riksbank: Sweden's central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 1.75% on Thursday.

Swiss National Bank: Switzerland's policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged at 0% on Thursday.

Read more here.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will print its quarterly economic projections alongside its decision. This summary, also known as the \\"dot plot\\", offers insights into what the Fed will do in the short term.

Yahoo Finance's Sarah C. Brady writes:

The dot plot is a chart that shows how the Fed's top policymakers — members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — think the Fed will change short-term interest rates over the next few years.

There are up to 19 dots on the Fed's dot plot, each one representing the prediction of one anonymous member of the Federal Reserve Board. Those predictions are updated at each FOMC meeting based on a review of what's happening with the economy and the outcomes each member believes are most likely in the future.

The Federal Reserve began publishing the chart in 2012 as part of an effort to increase transparency around its policies. The dot plot can now be found in the Summary of Economic Projections published each March, June, September, and December.

The dot plot only tells us what the FOMC members estimate will happen to interest rates in the future. But remember, they are educated guesses and they're not necessarily accurate, since a variety of factors could change the ultimate outcome.

Learn how to read the Fed's dot plot here.

The Federal Reserve signaled in January that it would hold off on raising rates for an undetermined period. That raises the question: What does this mean for mortgage rates?

Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick explains that the Federal Reserve and mortgage rates are working on two ends of a timeline. The Fed steers short-term interest rates, and mortgage rates are influenced by long-term bonds.

That means mortgage rates are priced to a longer-term benchmark, such as the 10-year Treasury. The bond market generally reacts to longer-term events, such as inflation, employment, and macroeconomic trends.

He writes:

What will it take for mortgage rates to continue a downward trend?

\\"The housing market doesn’t turn on a single rate decision — it turns when people can plan with confidence,\\" Bill Banfield, chief business officer at Rocket Companies, said in a statement. \\"Even without a rate cut, mortgage rates are nearly a full percentage point lower than they were a year ago, when rates hovered around 6.9%. That kind of steady, year-over-year improvement is what builds buyer confidence and pulls people back into the market.\\"

It's not the Fed moving mortgage rates; it's the economy.

Don't pin your home-buying hopes on short-term events, day-to-day trends, and all the other things out of your control. Once you have your down payment in hand, a home-buying budget ready to go, and an idea of how much house you can afford, make a real-life plan to buy a house.

Read more here.

US stocks cautiously rebounded for the second day in a row on Tuesday as the Fed's two-day policy meeting began. And while stocks often react to expectations of the Fed's policy actions and to those actions themselves, the markets' focus has largely been on crude oil prices and the outlook for inflation.

As of Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 98.9% chance that the Fed keeps interest rates at the same level tomorrow, according to CME FedWatch. The other 1.1% of traders expect a 25 basis point rate hike — a turn from the sliver of traders betting on a rate cut just a month ago.

The Federal Reserve doesn't directly oversee markets, its actions can affect sentiment and ripple through equities, bonds, and other asset classes. As Yahoo Finance's Catherine Brock points out, investor expectations can trigger stock price swings when those expectations diverge from the Fed’s decision.

Or as David Russell, global head of marketing strategy at trading platform TradeStation, explained, “The Fed’s main impact on the stock market is to confirm or reject expectations about rates and the economy.”

Read more here about how the Fed affects stocks.

The oil shock from the war in the Middle East raises three major questions for the central bank this week: How will the surge in energy prices impact inflation expectations? Will higher oil costs bleed through to core prices? And how will the Fed respond?

Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports:

If energy costs trickle down into core inflation, future readings on core PCE could push higher than anticipated.

Former St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard, now dean of the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University, said that while he expects headline inflation to rise, he doesn't expect core inflation to go up much.

The spike in oil prices will push the Fed's attention to inflation, but will also raise the argument that this is a temporary supply shock.

RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said he expects the Fed to temporarily look through volatile energy costs.

\\"However, should those inflation expectations start moving higher, the central bank will be reluctant to make the same policy error it made during the pandemic era, which featured an energy shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,\\" Brusuelas wrote in a note.

Read more here.

The federal funds rate influences savings rates, interest charges, and, to a small degree, mortgage rates. Wall Street traders, as measured by federal funds futures trading, put the next rate cut no sooner than October.

Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick breaks down how the continuing rate pause may impact deposits, credit, and debt:

Checking accounts: Your checking account churns cash flow to pay bills. The convenience of liquidity limits your earning power. The national average of interest paid on checking accounts has barely budged much this year and remains at 0.07%.

Savings accounts: Interest rates on savings accounts are only marginally better, remaining at 0.39%. But savings accounts are for near-term money.

High-yield savings accounts have been more effective interest payers. Rates are mostly in the upper-3% range, with an occasional 4% yield available. This is one category where rate shopping really pays off. Especially as interest rates move lower.

Money market accounts: If you have $10,000 or more that you want to keep on the sidelines but ready to put in play, money market accounts have been convenient — but low-paying. National average payouts remain at 0.56%. A better option might be a high-yield money market account, where you may still find something close to 4%.

Certificates of Deposit: CD rates have crept slightly lower in the last month or so. A 12-month CD has slipped down to 1.61%, but you can find better deals if you're willing to take the time to hunt them down — and move your money around online.

Read more here.