In comments to reporters on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the oil crisis resulting from the Iran war could drive up inflation. Just as notable, however, was what he didn't say — and the predictions he refused to make.

Even as he said “there will be some effects on inflation going forward," the Fed chair stuck to the same line when asked to make predictions about just how large the effects of the war in the Middle East could be: "The implications of developments in the Middle East on the US economy are uncertain."

“There is tension between the two goals: upward risks for inflation and downward risks for employment, and that puts us in a difficult situation," Powell said.

His remarks highlight the difficult position facing the central bank as the conflict drives oil prices sharply higher, raising the risk of renewed price pressures even as elevated energy costs threaten to weigh on economic growth.

Oil has surged since the United States and Israel began striking Iran on Feb. 28, triggering a broader regional conflict that has disrupted energy markets.

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) have each risen more than 50% over the past month, trading above $103 and $96 per barrel on Wednesday. Both benchmarks briefly climbed as high as $119 earlier in the conflict — levels not seen since 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Central banks, Powell said, have historically tended to “look through” energy-driven inflation shocks, which often prove temporary.

“Traditionally, prices go up and then they come back down … and then by the time monetary policy would react, it’s over,” he said.

Yet he cautioned that a prolonged period of elevated energy costs could present a more complicated policy trade-off, and that the Middle East war is "going to be part of" heightened projections from the Fed over where inflation will end the year, Powell said — without putting numbers on his statement.

Higher oil prices can push up headline inflation and, if sustained, feed into underlying price pressures — strengthening the case for keeping borrowing costs elevated. At the same time, rising energy costs act as a drag on household spending and corporate margins, potentially slowing economic activity and complicating the path for interest rates.

“There’s lots of ways that oil and the derivatives of oil get into production and many, many things," but "the net effect of an oil shock will still be some downward pressure on spending and employment, and some upward pressure on inflation," Powell acknowledged.

Gas prices, Powell noted, are already up nearly one dollar per gallon nationally. Inflation expectations can rise as consumers see the effects of energy price increases bleed into the wider economy.

For Powell, however, it's still too early to make a call on future interest rate decisions.

Looking ahead to the Fed’s next policy meeting, Powell said incoming data over the next six weeks will be "very important for how the economy looks and how the outlook evolves." Until then, the Fed chair suggested the governors' ability to respond is limited.

“The truth is it is completely out of our hands,” he said of geopolitical developments and their effect on commodity prices. “It’ll come down to how long the current situation lasts. There’s really not a lot we can do other than watch and see.”

Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.