Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slide amid inflation worries as Iran war sends oil surging
US stocks were poised to build on losses on Thursday as oil prices spiked amid strikes on key Middle East energy hubs, stoking already intense inflation concerns on Wall Street.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.4%, coming off a bruising session that dragged the blue-chip benchmark to its lowest close this year. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) declined 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
Brent (BZ=F) crude futures surged as much as 10% to as high as $119 a barrel after Iran and Israel exchanged attacks on highly important oil and gas facilities. The escalation in hostilities stoked fears of a more severe fallout from the conflict than foreseen. Gains for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) lagged, rising over 2% to above $97.
Markets were already contending with rising inflation forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which dampened expectations for interest-rate cuts. While the Fed signaled one cut could still be on the table this year, bets are policymakers will stand pat — especially after hawkish comments from Chair Jerome Powell.
Looking ahead, focus turns to fresh economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, due later Thursday.
On the corporate front, shares of Micron (MU) dropped in premarket as the chipmaker's AI spending plans overshadowed strong earnings. Meanwhile, Alibaba (BABA) stock slid after a 67% plunge in quarterly profit underscored the need for a payoff from its AI investments.
Investors were closely watching Jerome Powell's post-policy meeting press conference for clues about how the war in Iran might change the Federal Reserve's calculus for future interest-rate cuts.
Here's a look at the takeaway from how far the Fed chair was willing to go in his comments
Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley writes:
In comments to reporters on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the oil crisis resulting from the Iran war could drive up inflation. Just as notable, however, was what he didn't say — and the predictions he refused to make.
Even as he said “there will be some effects on inflation going forward,\\" the Fed chair stuck to the same line when asked to make predictions about just how large the effects of the war in the Middle East could be: \\"The implications of developments in the Middle East on the US economy are uncertain.\\"
“There is tension between the two goals: upward risks for inflation and downward risks for employment, and that puts us in a difficult situation,\\" Powell said.
... [He] cautioned that a prolonged period of elevated energy costs could present a more complicated policy trade-off, and that the Middle East war is \\"going to be part of\\" heightened projections from the Fed over where inflation will end the year, Powell said — without putting numbers on his statement.
Read more here.
Shares in the miner Newmont (NEM) fell 7% before the bell on Thursday as gold (GC=F), silver (SI=F) and copper (HG=F) futures edged lower.
Five Below (FIVE) stock rose 6% during premarket hours today after reporting higher quarterly profit and sales, citing an increase in customer footfall due to the retailer's low-priced offerings.
Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) stock rose 6% before the bell on Thursday after activist investor Elliott said it had built a significant stake in the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening.
Alibaba (BABA) stock slumped 5% during premarket hours on Thursday as the e-commerce giant's earnings fell while revenue barely grew. Alibaba reported a 2% rise in sales to $41.3 billion for the three months ended December. Net income fell 67%, its worst result since 2024, caused by the company's heavy spending on promotions.
Bloomberg News reports:
The disappointing results show why the company is driving a major restructuring aimed at generating profit off its sprawling AI endeavors. The company this week launched an agentic AI service known as Wukong for company clients, and hiked prices for its cloud computing and storage services by as much as 34%. Alibaba is keen to monetize its growing AI portfolio in part to offset losses in its e-commerce business, which is grappling with fierce domestic competition.
The Hangzhou-based company — one of the world’s largest cloud service providers — is considered a frontrunner in China’s race toward artificial general intelligence. It’s also the most aggressive in terms of spending: Alibaba has pledged more than $53 billion of AI investment over several years, far surpassing its Chinese rivals though a fraction of the $650 billion that US hyperscalers intend to shell out in 2026.
Read more here.
Micron (MU) stock fell 5% before the bell on Thursday following the chipmaker's earnings report. The company's plan to increase capital expenditure left investors feeling nervous. The company's AI-fueled earnings for the quarter beat analysts' estimates.
Reuters reports:
Micron, whose shares have climbed more than 61% this year after surging over 240% in 2025, said it is boosting its 2026 capital spending plan by $5 billion to meet growing demand, bringing its total investment for the current fiscal year to more than $25 billion.
It added spending will rise again in 2027, with manufacturing expansion expected to drive construction-related costs more than $10 billion higher compared with 2026.
The chipmaker topped Wall Street expectations for the second quarter and forecast third-quarter revenue of $33.5 billion, plus or minus $750 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $24.29 billion according to data compiled by LSEG.
Read more here.
Oil prices surged after Iran and Israel traded strikes on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities, spurring fears of a more severe impact from the almost three-week-old conflict.
Bloomberg reports:
Brent (BZ=F) advanced as much as 7.2% to top $115 a barrel, while the most-active contract for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $97, although its gains on the day were far smaller. European natural gas rose as much as 35%. Iran carried out attacks on a major LNG site in Qatar, one of several energy assets it pledged to target following strikes on the Islamic Republic’s giant South Pars gas field.
Oil has surged about 50% since the start of the war, which has wrought chaos across the Middle East — choking off the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and slashing a swath of oil and gas production. However, Iran’s upstream energy industry had been largely spared until now, helping to contain the prospect of an escalation that could have a bigger impact on longer-term supply.
“The market is still underestimating and not fully pricing the risk of how quickly this could escalate into direct hits on wider Gulf energy infrastructure,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago. “If this escalates into direct hits then $120 won’t be the ceiling, it’ll be the starting point. To see $140 to $160 won’t be crazy at all,” he added, referring to Brent prices.
President Donald Trump said the US didn’t know about Israel’s assault on the South Pars gas field, but threatened to “blow up the entirety” of the deposit with US forces if Qatari assets get hit further. He said earlier this week that targeting oil infrastructure on Iran’s main export hub, Kharg Island, remains on the table following earlier bombing of military targets there.
Read more here.
Reuters reports:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday approved a Nasdaq (^IXIC) proposal to allow certain stocks to be traded and settled in tokenized form, according to a regulatory filing, marking a step toward integrating blockchain-based settlements into mainstream equity markets.
Exchange operators have been doubling down on their push to capitalize on the boom in tokenization as regulations for cryptocurrencies ease under the Trump administration.
The move would allow investors to trade high-volume stocks as traditional shares or as blockchain-based digital tokens to be settled through the Depository Trust Company.
Nasdaq had filed a proposal with the SEC in September to amend its rules to allow listed stocks and exchange-traded products to trade on its main market in either traditional or tokenized form.
Read more here.
Bloomberg reports:
Gold (GC=F) recovered some ground after sliding nearly 4% on Wednesday, with dip-buyers helping the metal to withstand spiking oil prices and inflationary risks from the war in the Middle East.
Bullion rose as much as 0.7%, reversing some losses sustained over six straight days of decline — the longest losing streak since late 2024. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its latest meeting and projected just one cut this year, with Chair Jerome Powell saying a reduction would require progress in slowing inflation. The conflict makes developments for the US economy “uncertain,” Fed officials said in a statement.
Oil advanced on Thursday after Iran and Israel traded strikes on some of the most important energy facilities in the Persian Gulf region. Nearly three weeks into the war, soaring crude and gas prices are raising inflationary risks, which make rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks less likely. This is a headwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest. A stronger dollar has also weighed on commodities priced in the US currency.
Read more here.