The recent oil price spike is likely to cause the most margin pressure for companies with the highest exposure to global supply chains and freight, according to a Jefferies consumer equities analyst note on Thursday.

The analysts note that certain industries, like travel and cosmetics, could be relatively insulated from economic pressure even if consumers rein in spending on non-essentials.

Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping lanes and caused oil prices to spike, raising the risk of ripple effects that hit stock portfolios halfway around the world.

Consumer discretionary and staples stocks have been among the hardest hit by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, in triple-digit territory. (Read our full daily markets coverage here.) Investors are concerned that surging oil prices will weigh on consumer spending and drive up costs for companies that make, move, and sell everything from paper towel to stiletto heels. “History suggests oil shocks do not hit the consumer evenly,” wrote Jefferies analysts in a note on Thursday. “The path of impact typically moves from costs to margins before demand, creating clear winners and losers based on business model, cost structure, and pricing flexibility.”

The companies that are most vulnerable to oil price shocks are those “with global sourcing, freight-intensive logistics, elevated inventories, and margins priced for recovery,” according to Jefferies. Nike (NKE) is one company that may be pressured by higher freight costs “given its scale and supply-chain complexity,” according to lifestyle goods analyst Randy Konik. He notes oil prices could prevent shoemaker On Holdings (ONON) from achieving the high profit margin expectations priced into its stock, while online fashion retailer Revolve (RVLV) could feel the pinch from its “inventory-heavy model and discretionary exposure.”

As the war in Iran drags on toward a fourth week, the investors are increasingly pricing in a prolonged conflict that results in a sustained disruption to global oil supplies. The consequences of that disruption will ripple through supply chains, effecting consumer behavior and, subsequently, stocks.

“Asset-light, recurring revenue models and companies with near-shored supply chains” are the most resilient to higher oil prices, according to Jefferies, including gym operators like Planet Fitness (PLNT) and Life Time Group Holdings (LTH). Estée Lauder (EL) is likely insulated by its increasingly localized supply chain, according to beauty analyst Sydney Wagner, who notes about 75% of the company’s U.S. sales are manufactured domestically. Highly differentiated products, like those from SharkNinja (SN), and strong brands, like Coca-Cola (KO) and Ralph Lauren (RL), are expected to be insulated by their pricing power—that is, their ability to raise prices without turning off consumers.

A company’s clientele is another factor to consider, because fuel accounts for a greater share of lower-income consumer spending than higher-income. With the average gas price up sharply since the start of the war, companies that cater primarily to low-income consumers could see demand drop off faster and more dramatically than premium brands. This is especially true in fashion, where value-oriented retailers like Kohl’s (KSS) or mid-tier brands like VFC Corp.’s (VFC) Vans and Timberland may be hit harder than luxury brands like Capri Holdings’ (CPRI) Jimmy Choo, according to Jefferies.

At the industry level, some industries face greater risk than others. Higher oil prices are “a renewed and underappreciated risk for the global toy sector,” according to toy analyst Kylie Cohu. Oil spikes create dual headwinds for toy makers: higher input and freight costs, and reduced demand as consumers, facing higher fuel prices and economic uncertainty, rein in discretionary purchases.

Not all discretionary spending faces the same pressure. “Historically, demand for vacations and leisure-related activities has proven resilient in periods of inflation and higher travel costs,” wrote gaming, lodging, and leisure analyst David Katz, who calls vacation spending a “high-priority discretionary category.” Beauty analyst Sydney Wagner notes cosmetics also tend to benefit from the “lipstick effect,” the tendency of consumers to treat beauty products as “affordable luxuries” they can still splurge on despite financial pressure.

Higher oil prices can even be a tailwind for some retailers. Convenience stores that sell gasoline, like Casey’s General Store (CASY) and Murphy USA (MUSA), tend to see their gas margins expand in the long run once oil prices moderate. Warehouse giant Costco (COST) “stands out for using low-priced fuel as a traffic driver,” wrote discount retailer analyst Corey Tarlowe. According to Tarlowe, about half of Costco members who fuel up at its gas stations “also cross-shop at the warehouse, supporting higher-margin merchandise sales.”

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