The benchmark S&P 500 Index ($SPX) is inching lower on Thursday as the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and a resilient Federal Reserve dampens investor confidence. As these macro developments continued to support “risk-off” sentiment, $SPX slid below its 200-day moving average (MA) today, a bearish setup that hasn’t emerged in nearly a year.

Versus its year-to-date high, the S&P 500 index is now trading down nearly 6%.

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S&P 500 remains under pressure as a missile strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial complex, the world’s largest LNG production facility, continues to drive global energy prices higher.

Brent crude (CBK26) briefly touched $119 a barrel this morning, sparking fears of a sustained inflationary shock.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish hold”, with its updated dot plot now calling for just one rate cut through the remainder of 2026.

A subsequent spike in Treasury yields is squeezing corporate valuations, leaving investors with few places to hide as the specter of stagflation resurfaces.

All in all, the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, necessitated by rising energy costs, has zapped the market’s appetite for risk.

Despite the aforementioned technical breakdown, Wall Street heavyweights remain bullish for the longer term.

In a research report dated March 17, UBS maintained its year-end price target at $7,700 for the benchmark index, signaling potential for a 14% rally from current levels.

According to the investment firm, recent volatility is a necessary reset of overextended valuations, not the start of a bear market.

Its strategists highlighted robust corporate earnings — forecasting 11% EPS growth for the year — and the continued productivity gains from large-scale AI integration as primary drivers.

Once geopolitical tensions subside, the underlying strength of the U.S. economy will propel the S&P 500 to new highs, they concluded.

On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com