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(Bloomberg) -- In a sweltering cattle shed south of Seoul, flies dart across hundreds of cows sitting at the heart of a trade talks between the US and South Korea.

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Lee Jongtae, 62, has raised cattle and grown rice with his family for more than 15 years in a rural part of Cheonan, just outside of the capital. Now, both parts of his business are under threat as President Lee Jae Myung’s two-month-old government considers allowing the US greater access to South Korea’s beef and rice markets, a politically sensitive topic that spurred widespread protests back in 2008.

“It keeps me up at night — just thinking about it makes my blood boil,” said Lee Jontae, who participated in the demonstrations almost two decades ago, as he checked on his roughly 400 cattle. “This is probably the biggest crisis we’ve faced since starting this farm.”

Thousands of farmers are nervous about getting left behind as South Korea scrambles to reach a last-minute deal with Washington before the Aug. 1 deadline, when President Donald Trump’s across-the-board tariffs on Korean exports are set to jump to 25%. Yet, compared with 2008 when more than a million people hit the streets of Seoul, the political power of farmers has declined as the chip and car sectors have increased in prominence.

Still, concessions by President Lee risk torpedoing his honeymoon period in office by angering farmers and fracturing his party. His victory in June’s election after months of political turmoil prompted an uptick in sentiment among businesses and consumers and a surge in stocks to record levels. But the nation is also playing catch-up in the trade talks to prevent higher universal tariffs damaging a fragile economy that’s just emerging from a contraction.

Farmers fear they will end up paying the price for that deal as Seoul looks to offer something that will delight one of the key groups in Trump’s support base. Lee might find his own public opinion ratings suffer, especially if agricultural concessions spark anything similar to the outrage in 2008.

South Korea already has a free trade agreement with the US and its corporate giants have pledged tens of billions of dollars of investments as the trade talks continue. Seoul is also expected to increase US energy imports, review digital regulations flagged by Washington and explore partnerships in shipbuilding and defense.

But as the clock ticks toward the deadline, pressure is mounting on Seoul to offer more. The stakes have grown even higher after Japan clinched a deal to lower its tariff rate to 15%. Without concessions, South Korea risks a competitive disadvantage in key export sectors like autos.

“South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs,” Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday. “I will be interested in hearing what that offer is.”

Broaching the topic of agricultural market access is politically fraught but strategically valuable. Possible measures include lifting a ban on US beef from cattle over 30 months old and expanding quotas for buying US rice, moves that will hit farmers like Lee.

For President Lee, farmers’ discontent risks becoming the first major setback of his presidency. Any perception that core public interests are being compromised could quickly undermine public trust early in Lee’s term and generate opposition within his own party.

A cautionary tale is the presidency of Lee Myung-bak, who in 2008 was seen as giving ground too easily to the US during trade talks at the start of his term. He lifted a ban on American beef imports related to earlier mad-cow disease outbreaks and stirred a debate tinged by national pride over beef production, food safety and US pressure. Weeks of protests by tens of thousands of demonstrators, candlelit vigils and go-slow tractor convoys triggered a freefall in Lee’s approval ratings. With his administration in its first major political crisis, Korea was forced to scramble to rework the terms.

“This is sensitive,” said Kichang Chung, a senior foreign attorney specializing in international trade litigation at Lee & Ko, in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. “The beef issue caused major political unrest about 20 years ago. But it is meaningful for the Korean government to put that issue on the table with the United States.”

Beef Influx

South Korea imported 493,452 tons of beef in 2024, nearly 1.7 times the volume of domestic hanwoo beef production, with just over half coming from the US, according to customs and industry data. Separate US Meat Export Federation figures show South Korea imported about $2.2 billion of American beef in 2024, making it the largest foreign buyer by value.

Under Lee Myung-bak’s trade deal with the US, a 40% tariff on American beef was gradually reduced over a 15-year period. A 2.6% duty remains in place for 2025 and that is scheduled to drop to zero next year.

South Korea’s per-capita consumption of beef is among the highest in Asia, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. It’s used for steaks, barbecued or marinated and grilled in bulgogi or galbi dishes. Gomtang, a beef bone broth, is Korea’s equivalent of chicken soup for the soul.

Drawing on advantages of scale, US beef comes in at a competitive price of about $9 per kilogram, compared with more than $13 for domestic production, according to customs and industry data from May compiled by Bloomberg.

“Young people with tight budgets are already leaning toward US beef,” said Lee Jongtae, the farmer in Cheonan, part of the bellwether region of Chungcheong where half the residents voted for Lee Jae Myung in June. “If the restrictions are relaxed any further, it will deal a serious blow to us.”

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The higher price of local beef also reflects its different characteristics. The government has tried to elevate the highly marbled Hanwoo beef as a premium product through a grading system. While that offers potential for a higher markup, Lee said his margins have shrunk by more than 30% as the costs of producing higher grade Hanwoo rise. To lower costs, he began growing rice as cattle feed, pouring savings into tractors and silos, while his debts continued to rise, he said.

But the price of Hanwoo beef has fallen in recent years, adding to the squeeze and leaving farmers vulnerable to any further changes in market dynamics.

“I wanted to pass this farm on to my son, but now I regret bringing him into this,” Lee said. “To move forward, you need to see at least a glimpse of the future, but it’s completely dark at the moment.”

Reflecting the high political stakes of opening up further to US imports of beef and rice, lawmakers from President Lee’s Democratic Party have issued a rare statement standing against the government and vowing to protect farmers “until the end.”

“Our agriculture and rural communities have solely borne the brunt of international trade negotiations for the last 30 years,” DP lawmakers on the National Assembly’s agriculture panel said in the statement. “The consequences — decline in grain self-sufficiency, surge in farm household debt and the disappearance of rural communities — remain unhealed to this day.”

While negotiators try to iron out a deal, Lee appears likely to use the legislative power of his party to appease farmers and navigate the tricky balancing act facing pressure from inside the country and outside. The National Assembly could pass a grain act that would require the government to automatically purchase surplus rice if certain conditions are met as early as next week — a bill that had been vetoed by former President Yoon Suk Yeol.

“I can tell you that we are doing our best to minimize our concessions to protect our domestic industries,” Woo Sang-ho, a South Korean presidential secretary said Monday, acknowledging that negotiators were under strong US pressure to accept demands on agricultural products.

This time around, the government can at least argue that it’s not alone in coming under heavy US pressure as Trump tries to reshape global trade. Policymakers can also point to concessions on beef already announced by other countries including Australia.

Most sectors in South Korea’s economy will be taking a hit from Trump’s barrage of tariffs, making it difficult for the agriculture industry to insist it should be exempt from the pain. On an overall economic level the farming sector generates about 1.5% of gross domestic product whereas the automobile and semiconductor industries are key drivers of the nation’s total exports, which are equivalent to more than 40% of the economy. Chips accounted for around 21% of exports last year, while cars comprised around 10%.

The strength of the agricultural community to trigger protests is also likely weaker than in 2008. At the end of 2024, farmers accounted for just 4% of the total population, with nearly 70% over the age of 60. Still, for President Lee, this aging but politically engaged group represents a highly mobilized voting bloc.

Rice carries even heavier symbolism in South Korean society. The country imposes a 513% tariff on rice imports beyond an annual quota of 410,000 tons, roughly one-third of which is allocated to the US.

Consumption has fallen over the years due to demographic shifts and changing diets. The government has been buying up surplus rice, expanding incentives for farmers who shift to alternative crops. It also launched a program to reduce rice-growing areas by 80,000 hectares this year.

Against that backdrop, talk of more US rice imports feels contradictory to local farmers, as it will add to already excess supply while relying on subsidies is only a short-term fix that doesn’t guarantee the industry’s sustainability.

Song Taesung, 54, a rice farmer in Cheonan, said he felt a sense of betrayal when Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo said agricultural concessions are always painful but may be strategically required.

That’s because President Lee campaigned on protecting the market and his party’s base overlaps with key rice-producing regions.

“President Lee was the one who criticized the Yoon administration for not protecting farmers — but now they want to bring in more American rice?” Song said. “This goes beyond deception. It feels like a complete betrayal.”

Following Yeo’s comments, protests erupted almost immediately across the country, with farmer groups accusing the government of using their livelihoods as bargaining chips.

Both farmers, Lee and Song, say they are ready to take to the streets again.

“Sure, it’ll be a symbolic win for Trump and his supporters in rural America,” Song said. “It’s heartbreaking that we’re being used as a political tool when it’s a matter of life or death for us.”

(Updates with Trump comment)