Oil could hit $175 a barrel, says United Airlines boss
One of the world’s largest airlines has begun taking fuel-saving measures as bosses brace for the possibility that the price of oil is poised to surge 60 per cent higher.
United Airlines said it was scrapping flights on less-profitable routes following a doubling of jet fuel prices since February.
Scott Kirby, the carrier’s chief executive, said the moves were part of steps to prepare for a scenario where oil hits $175 (£131) a barrel and remains above $100 through 2027.
That would push up United’s annual fuel bill by about $11bn (£8.2bn), more than twice the company’s best-ever profit, Mr Kirby warned.
In a memo to staff, the chief executive said: “Honestly, I think there’s a good chance it won’t be that bad but there isn’t much downside for us ⁠to preparing for that outcome.”
Mr Kirby said the moves aimed at ensuring the company was “in a stronger position” to react if oil prices remained elevated.
He added the airline did not plan to furlough staff, defer aircraft orders or delay investments.
United would have to “be smart and nimbly manage our schedule” to cut fuel spending, he said.
“In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices,” Mr Kirby said.
“There’s no point in burning cash in the near-term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs.”
Delta Air Lines, United’s rival, has also said it is looking at cutting flights if fuel prices remain high.
Since late February – when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran – the price of Brent crude has rocketed from $70 to $110 a barrel.
That has followed strikes on regional energy facilities and the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping chokepoint. This shutdown has locked huge amounts of oil and gas into the Gulf and sent markets into a panic.
In response, United has begun trimming flights that are less busy and so have been rendered unprofitable by fuel price increases.
The airline has cut midweek, Saturday and overnight services as well as keeping services to destinations such as Tel Aviv and Dubai suspended. Overall, the cuts amount to about 5 per cent of the company’s total capacity.
American carriers are more exposed to jet fuel cost increases because, unlike many of their European counterparts, they do not tend to hedge.
The companies have instead relied on raising fares and trimming capacity to cut costs.
So far, major airlines have said strong demand for flights is giving them room to do that. United said the first 10 weeks of this year were the strongest for bookings in its history.
But Mr Kirby said listening to his rivals at a recent conference had left him convinced that they were being complacent.
“Many said some version of, ‘Hope is our strategy’”, he said.
“It’s possible they’re right and the war ends quickly. But if it doesn’t, this will be our opportunity.”
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