Oil Dives as Trump Says Talks to End Mideast War Are Underway
(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell sharply, posting one of the biggest intraday price swings on record, after President Donald Trump said his team held discussions about ending the conflict with Iran, though Tehran denied any such dialog.
Brent crude fell as much as 14% shortly after Trump made the announcement on his Truth Social network, sliding to $96 a barrel. Prices pared a significant portion of the drop after Iran denied there were any talks, then resumed declines when the President told Fox Business that a deal could come within days.
Most Read from Bloomberg
LaGuardia Crash Kills Two After Air Canada Jet Hits Vehicle
Iranian Navy Guided Indian Tanker Through Hormuz, Crew Member Says
Super Micro Co-Founder Charged With Smuggling, Departs Board
Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours on Hormuz, Threatens Power Plants
Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Trump Eases Iran Threats: Markets Wrap
Europe’s natural gas benchmark also plunged before paring most of its losses.
Energy markets have been pitched into turmoil since the Iran conflict began at the end of February, with the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway all but blocked. The de facto closure of the waterway has disrupted about a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar portion of its liquefied natural gas supply.
The International Energy Agency has described the current crisis as the largest oil supply disruption in history.
US officials have been quick to try and talk down energy markets in recent weeks and Trump’s remarks on Monday were the latest in a run of comments that appear designed to tame prices. As well as verbal interventions, the US has also announced a release of emergency oil reserves and waived some sanctions on Iranian and Russian barrels in a bid to offset some of the supply lost to the blockage of Hormuz.
Monday’s swings are the latest in a series of huge price moves that have exhausted oil traders since the war began. Four of the six largest swings ever seen in Brent futures have come since the conflict started at the end of February.
“The market is in utter chaos,” analysts at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd. wrote in a note. Trump’s latest social media post was “a clear sign of conceding to market forces, rallying oil prices and falling equities,” they said.
Trump said on Truth Social that the US had held productive conversations regarding a total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East. He later told Fox Business that Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts were involved in the talks, which could result in a deal within five days.
Iran’s state-run Mizan news agency cited a foreign ministry statement as saying there are no talks between Tehran and Washington. Other media services in the country also said there were no talks.
On Friday, Trump said that he was considering “winding down” US military efforts, before giving Iran 48 hours to reopen Hormuz and threatening attacks on the country’s power plants if it didn’t.
“Trump is plainly trying to talk down the price,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “Reopening Hormuz is up to Iran and not down to Trump’s policies.”
Wall Street banks have been steadily upgrading their oil price forecasts in recent weeks on the back of disruption from the conflict. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said before Trump’s post on Monday that it now expects crude to average $85 a barrel this year, up from $77 previously.
De-escalation could lead to a return of some of lost Middle East oil production, though much would depend on how soon shipowners would be willing to resume sailing through Hormuz. The flow of most goods through the waterway has been all but halted with shipowners unwilling to risk the lives of their seafarers.
Any halt to hostilities would likely bring relief to the inflationary impact of the conflict, though energy supplies could take some time to restart.
“This does not open the Strait of Hormuz and still leaves the energy markets to struggle with actual supply curtailments,” said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank. “Buying time while pushing any resumption of energy flows further back.”
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
American Retirees Want to Leave the Country. Italy and Costa Rica Are Happy to Have Them
Why Diesel Prices Are the Real Concern for the Economy
Architect Bjarke Ingels Says Modern Buildings Are So Boring
Peter Attia’s Longevity Empire Rocked by Epstein Files
Beware the Retirement Red Zone That Can Derail Your Savings Plan
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.