Oil Rallies on Mixed Signals Over Ceasefire Talks With Iran

(Bloomberg) -- Oil jumped on Thursday as mixed messages from US President Donald Trump failed to convince traders that the prospect of talks with Iran will quickly bring an end to the war in the Middle East.

Brent rose 5.7% to close just over $108 a barrel after Trump said he doesn’t know if the US is “willing” to work with Iran on a deal. The month-long conflict has roiled global energy markets, hitting Asia especially hard, and threatening to spike inflation worldwide. WTI, the benchmark for US crude, climbed 4.6%.

Prices pared some gains before mostly recovering in after-market trading when Trump announced the US will extend its deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6 before striking the country’s energy infrastructure.

The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital oil and gas shipping route, has meant millions of barrels of lost daily oil output, while supercharging product prices from diesel to jet fuel.

Over the past month, prices have fluctuated with major headlines on the trajectory of the the US-Israel war on the Islamic Republic, and Thursday was no different. Prices climbed after the US warned ships of a potential threat by Iran-based Houthi militants in the key Bab El Mandeb Strait, raising fears of further strain on already fragile global supply chains. The route is one of few alternative shipping routes to Hormuz.

Trump again threatened Iran with increased military action if a deal isn’t struck.

As pressure mounts over rising energy costs at home, the White House has been attempting to talk prices lower through a mix of rhetoric and policy signals. Trump said he is also considering suspending the federal gasoline tax.

“The market is moving past rhetoric and wants real detail on negotiations and a path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Efforts to talk crude lower — via wiggle room on the Friday deadline and policy ideas like a gas tax holiday — have worked in the past, but not today.”

In the US — where pump prices have been surging — administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil to as much as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign senior staff are studying the possible fallout from extreme scenarios.

Iran, for its part, is working on a draft bill to charge a fee in exchange for providing security to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

Prices briefly walked back some gains earlier in the day after Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Iran responded to the US’s 15-point peace proposal through intermediaries. That came after Trump warned Iran to get serious about talks “before it is too late.”

Iran is also calling for an end to the war on all fronts, Tasnim reported, a likely reference to Israel’s parallel war against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

Four of the six largest swings ever seen in international oil benchmark Brent futures have come since the war started at the end of February. Now, as traders struggle to adjust their exposure and protect their positions, evidence is growing that liquidity is thinning, which threatens to worsen the violent moves.

“For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of disruption,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad Energy. “With spare capacity largely trapped behind the Strait, and inventories already drawing down, the system has shifted from buffered to fragile.”

Trump hasn’t announced plans, but people familiar with the matter have said that the Pentagon ordered the deployment of two Marine Expeditionary Units — made up of about 5,000 troops, plus aircraft and landing vehicles — to the region. On Tuesday, a person familiar with the matter said that Trump was also sending soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division.

The head of the United Arab Emirates’ state-run oil company said Tehran’s actions with Hormuz were destabilizing the global economy.

“Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation,” Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber told an event in Washington. “It is economic terrorism against every nation, every family.”

As the conflict drags on — with Israel making fresh strikes against the Iranian city of Isfahan, and Tehran retaliating — governments across Asia are preparing for worst-case scenarios. Thailand’s gasoline prices were hiked as much as 22%, the Philippines suspended the nation’s wholesale electricity spot market, and farmers in India and China grappled with surging costs of agrochemicals.

--With assistance from John Deane.

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