Crude Oil Drives Higher as Traders Brace for Longer Mideast War
(Bloomberg) -- Oil pushed higher as traders braced for the Iran war to stretch into April and attacks continued across the Middle East, with transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz still largely halted.
Global benchmark Brent rose above $111 a barrel after erasing an earlier drop, while West Texas Intermediate was near $99. US President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline for striking Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, prolonging uncertainty over the course of the war.
Oil-market liquidity has thinned in recent sessions as traders fatigued by the breakneck newsflow move to the sidelines, amplifying price swings.
“Market participants are worn out by headlines,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. At this point, even a quick resolution to the conflict would be hard-pressed to unwind the extensive physical and geopolitical fallout, he added.
Trump’s deadline extension for Iran allows more time for talks, but also for the US to amass additional forces in the region. That includes Marine Expeditionary Units and soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, according to people familiar with the matter. The Wall Street Journal said the Pentagon is looking at sending as many as 10,000 extra ground troops.
“Lacking any meaningful peace progress in the Middle East, oil appears to be forming a near-term floor in the $85 to $90 a barrel range,” said Bret Kenwell, analyst at eToro, which tracks retail investing.
The spread between Brent and WTI widened on Friday to roughly $13 a barrel, compared to $5 less than a month ago. US benchmark gains have been muted amid ample regional inventories and an imminent strategic reserves release, boosting demand for the relatively cheap crude among foreign buyers cut off from their usual Persian Gulf supplies.
Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March. With Tehran forcing the near-complete closure of Hormuz, the conflict has severely restricted flows of energy vital to the global economy.
Attacks are continuing. Among them, Israel said it struck Iran’s primary facility for the production of missiles and sea mines in the city of Yazd, while Kuwait said drones targeted Shuwaikh port, resulting in damage, and Mubarak Al Kabeer port also came under attack. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones in its eastern region.
While there was a roughly 60% probability of the war finishing by end-March, there were 40% odds of a longer conflict, possibly through June, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts. The latter scenario could drive oil to $200 a barrel, they wrote in a note.
The Trump administration is also trying to arrange a meeting for Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off-ramp to the war, CNN reported, citing two US officials. Other top administration staff could also join the meeting, the network said.
Iran said on Thursday, through the Tasnim news agency, that it was waiting for a response after rejecting a 15-point US plan to end the war and offering its own conditions. Those include recognition of Tehran’s authority over Hormuz.
The vital waterway carried about a fifth of global oil flows before the conflict erupted. Despite the broader standstill, there has been a recent marginal increase in Iran-linked ships — mostly bulk carriers and LPG vessels — attempting to pass through. Two large container ships linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp. attempted to exit the Gulf on Friday, before making an abrupt U-turn near Iran and motoring back.
The United Arab Emirates has told the US and other allies it would participate in a multinational maritime task-force intended to reopen the strait, the Financial Times reported, citing three people familiar with the situation. Abu Dhabi would deploy its own navy, two of the people said.
Brent has surged by about 53% so far in March, and petroleum-product costs from diesel to jet fuel have rallied even more, burdening businesses and consumers. The increases have triggered concern about a simultaneous spike in global inflation and slowdown in growth.
Across the Asia-Pacific region, India cut taxes on diesel and gasoline to cushion the impact of surging crude prices on its refiners, and Vietnam froze some fuel levies until mid-April. New Zealand said there was evidence of increased demand, partially from hoarding or stockpiling.
Another conflict is simultaneously roiling supply flows. Russian producers have warned buyers they may declare force majeure on supplies from key Baltic ports after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted exports from Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Reuters reports, citing unidentified industry sources.
--With assistance from Charles Gorrivan, Charlie Zhu, Sarah Chen and John Deane.
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