Fed's Miran favors looking through oil price spike, says concern is about job market

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Wednesday he’s more concerned about the job market now than inflation, and he believes the central bank can look through the surge in oil prices stemming from the war in Iran.

“When you get a move higher in oil from something like what's going on in Iran, the oil price goes up immediately, and headline inflation goes up a lot in the short term. But as you look a year to a year and a half out, it's very unlikely that that causes subsequent effects that are affecting the economy,” Miran said at the Digital Asset Summit in New York.

Miran maintains the Fed makes policy for 12 to 18 months from now because, he argues, adjustments in interest rates don’t feed through into actual economic growth, unemployment, and inflation for at least a year.

“That's part of the classic reasoning of why a central bank should look through an oil shock, as the Federal Reserve has historically done,” he said.

Miran has raised his outlook for headline inflation to 2.7% this year on account of the oil price spike. But he maintains that outside of oil, inflation isn’t that “problematic."

Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceries

On the other hand, he said, "The labor market has been on a very gradual trend of weakening over the course of the last three years."

“My view is that the economy can bear additional support for the labor market from monetary policy,” he said.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Fed governor Michael Barr said Tuesday that he needs to see evidence that inflation from goods and services is falling before considering further rate cuts, assuming the job market remains stable.

Barr noted the conflict in the Middle East raises additional risks.

“Higher oil prices tend to pass through pretty quickly to gasoline prices, and higher gasoline prices can be particularly painful for low- and moderate-income families,” Barr said.

Jennifer Schonberger is a veteran financial journalist covering markets, the economy, and investing. At Yahoo Finance, she covers the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the Treasury, the SEC, the economy, cryptocurrencies, and the intersection of Washington policy with finance. Follow her on X @Jenniferisms and on Instagram.

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