(Bloomberg) -- Crippling drone strikes on key Russian ports sent the nation’s oil flows tumbling to the lowest in more than a year and dented funding for the Kremlin’s war chest. Baltic shipments were the lowest since Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Repeated attacks on the oil export terminals at Primorsk and Ust-Luga set storage tanks ablaze and halted loading activities for much of last week, cutting flows through the ports to about a third of the previous week’s level and reducing Moscow’s oil income by more than $1 billion.

The attacks came just as the Kremlin had been cashing in on the war in the Middle East, boosting exports into a market that has seen prices for its crude more than double in a month. Ukraine shows no sign of easing up, despite pressure from some of its international partners to do so as global oil flows are hammered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Weekly crude flows from Russia slumped by 1.75 million barrels a day to 2.32 million last week, but the impact on four-week average shipments was more muted, with shipments in the 28 days to March 29 falling by 280,000 barrels a day to average 3.31 million, the lowest in two months.

The slump in crude flows coincided with a surge in deliveries from tankers previously stranded at sea with Russian cargoes. The amount of crude arriving in India surged to almost 1.7 million barrels a day this month, up from about 1.1 million barrels a day in February after the US issued waivers permitting purchases of Russian oil loaded onto tankers before March 12.

That’s started to drain the stockpile of Russian crude at sea, which reached a high of about 140 million barrels in January. By Sunday, the amount on the water had fallen back below 120 million barrels, with deliveries outpacing shipments.

Russia has also found new buyers for its oil, with the Philippines taking two cargoes of Pacific-loading ESPO crude, its first Russian lots since 2021, tracking data show.

Separately, oil tankers hauling Moscow’s oil are increasingly avoiding the North Sea and the English Channel after the UK said it would interdict and board Russian shadow fleet vessels in its waters. That’s sending ships heading to and from Russia’s Baltic ports around the north of Scotland, adding about two days, or 25%, to a journey between the Baltic and the Mediterranean compared with the more common route passing between England and France.

Crude Shipments

A total of 22 tankers loaded 16.23 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to March 29, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down sharply from 28.5 million barrels on 37 ships the previous week.

On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to March 29 slumped to 2.32 million barrels a day, a drop of about 1.75 million barrels a day to the lowest since February 2025.

The drop was driven by multiple Ukrainian drone strikes on Primorsk and Ust-Luga that halted shipments for much of the week. Combined exports from the two ports were the lowest in data going back to the start of 2022.

An apparent four-day gap in loading operations at the Pacific port of Kozmino suggests maintenance work may have temporarily halted shipments there.

The flows are volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions and the timing of shipments.

There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk and one from Ust-Luga during the week.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports edged up to $1.79 billion a week in the 28 days to March 29 from $1.7 billion in the period to March 22. That took it to the highest since May 2024, with higher prices more than offsetting the drop in flows.

Urals prices rose for a fourth week, driven higher by the conflict in the Middle East, which further boosted global benchmarks, and an easing of the discounts Moscow had previously been forced to offer to move additional cargoes into China, as buyers returned for the nation’s crude.

Using this measure, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic rose by about $11.30 to $73.24 a barrel and a similar increase took Black Sea cargoes to $71.53. The price of Pacific ESPO crude increased by $9.50 to average $84.19 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were also up, rising by $14.80 to $97.69 a barrel. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1.44 billion in the 7 days to March 29, down by $1 billion from the previous week. The slump in flows was only partly offset by higher prices, with Urals rising by about $4.50 a barrel compared with the week to March 22, while Pacific-loading ESPO fell by $3.60 a barrel.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 3.08 million barrels a day in the 28 days to March 29, following the drop in overall shipments.

While the amount of Russian crude on tankers showing destinations in China and India continues to show sharp declines in the most recent weeks, the volume on vessels yet to show a final destination has soared, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed in time. Tankers frequently show interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.

Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 1.04 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 29, down from a revised 1.16 million barrels a day for the period to March 22. The amount destined for India fell to 620,000 barrels a day from a revised 910,000 barrels a day in the earlier period.

The Philippines has taken its first cargoes of Russia’s ESPO crude since 2021, with one tanker having offloaded and a second waiting to discharge.

But there is the equivalent of 1.35 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination. Of that, about 1.22 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 130,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal any destination.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to March 29 slipped to about 130,000 barrels a day from about 140,000 barrels a day in the period to March 22.

Four-week flows to Syria were stable at 25,000 barrels a day, down from a recent peak of about 130,000 barrels a day seen in the period to mid-January. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they’re south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can often be picked up on satellite photos. Two Russian tankers were anchored off the port at the end of the week, satellite images show.

NOTES

This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Wednesday, April 8.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.

If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.

--With assistance from Sherry Su.

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