Brent Oil Set for Record Monthly Rally While Trump Mulls War End

(Bloomberg) -- Oil is on track for its strongest ever monthly rally in London, even as prices fluctuated Tuesday, buffeted by ongoing attacks in the Persian Gulf and signs of President Donald Trump contemplating an exit from the Iran conflict.

Brent futures for May delivery traded near $119 a barrel, headed for a record surge of more than 60% in March as the US-Israeli campaign against Iran triggered the most severe energy supply shock in history. With May futures expiring on Tuesday, the more widely-traded June contract was up slightly, trading near $108.

Trump told allies struggling to obtain jet fuel that normally flows through the strait to just “take it,” arguing in a social media post that the US had already weakened Iran enough.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Trump told aides he’s willing to end the military campaign even if the strait remains closed, after his administration assessed that reopening the corridor would take too long. The president resolved that the US should instead focus on crippling Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles, then wind down current hostilities.

Prices initially soared on Tuesday as Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in a drone attack, but the gains subsequently cooled. The Al-Salmi, a fully-laden very large crude carrier, was hit in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port with the hull sustaining damage. Tehran has regularly targeted ships across the Gulf since the war began, previously attacking two vessels near Iraq.

“I think we are closer to an offramp exit scenario than a lot of people actually assume,” Christoph Eibl, chief executive officer and co-founder of commodities trader Tiberius Group, said in a Bloomberg television interview. “There is a chance for a quick, go-in, make noise, blow up something” operation by the US while it tries “to find a way to exit” the conflict quickly.

The war, now in its fifth week, has effectively closed Hormuz, choking off supplies of crude, natural gas and products such as diesel to global markets, which has led to skyrocketing energy prices and concerns about inflation. US gasoline topped $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022, posing a major political risk for Trump’s White House in a midterm-election year.

Trump has regularly swung between saying an end to the war is near and warning that he’s prepared to ramp up military operations. On Monday, he said that the US will blow up power plants, oil facilities and “possibly” desalination infrastructure if Iran doesn’t re-open Hormuz.

US crude is up more than 50% this month, the most since May 2020, and the market remains on edge about the buildup of US troops in the region and a possible ground deployment in Iran.

Hostilities continued on Tuesday with Israel Defense Forces completing another wave of strikes on Iranian regime targets in Tehran, while Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed drones. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported as US-Israeli strike on Bahman Port in the east of Qeshm Island.

Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Israel with missiles. Tehran is pushing the militants to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, which could threaten oil supplies from alternative routes outside Hormuz, such as Saudi Arabian shipments from its Yanbu port.

“The tone remains one step forward, five steps back on any off-ramp,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “With 10 to 12 million barrels per day still effectively missing from the market, buffers are fading and talking crude lower is becoming less effective.”

--With assistance from Charles Gorrivan and John Deane.

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