Veriton Investment

Gold Gains as Weaker Economic Data Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

(Bloomberg) -- Gold edged higher on Tuesday, building on three days of growth amid expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month after a spate of weaker economic data.

Most Read from Bloomberg

PATH Train Service Resumes After Fire at Jersey City Station

Mayor Asked to Explain $1.4 Billion of Wasted Johannesburg Funds

Chicago Curbs Hiring, Travel to Tackle $1 Billion Budget Hole

All Hail the Humble Speed Hump

US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and tension surrounding his looming deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his full-scale invasion of Ukraine has also provided momentum for gold.

“Fears of a slowdown in the US economy along with concerns about rising inflation amid Trump’s tariffs are driving increased demand for gold,” ING Groep NV strategist Ewa Manthey said. “With US fed rate cuts now intensifying, gold’s bullish momentum could grow, sending gold to fresh highs.”

Spot gold traded near $3,379 an ounce in London, up 0.2%.

Traders are increasingly pricing in US rate cuts to bolster the US economy after weaker data, including a Monday report from the Institute for Supply Management that showed the services sector effectively stagnated in July as firms — faced with tepid demand and rising costs — reduced headcount. That comes after data out last week showed a much weaker labor market than previously thought after revisions to May and June, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending barely rose.

Lower rates typically boost the price of gold, which doesn’t pay interest.

“I think it will be the Fed cutting rates that could be the catalyst to push gold to another record,” Manthey added. “I think gold has further room to run. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, Trump’s trade war is still going on and ETF holdings continue to expand. The bullish drivers are there.”

Bullion has gained nearly 30% this year amid Trump’s campaign to slap tariffs on imports and geopolitical conflicts, along with central bank buying and bets on rate cuts. Investors and analysts see more gains ahead, with Fidelity International forecasting bullion could hit $4,000 an ounce by the end of next year.

Citigroup Inc. also revised its forecast for gold, with analysts now predicting bullion will rally to a record high in the near term due to a worsening US economy and inflation-boosting tariffs. But many expectations for gold to break out of its range bound trading following April’s $3,500 high haven’t come to fruition even with the slew of uncertainty in both the economy and geopolitical outlook.

“Despite all these gold-positive arguments, the gains of the precious metal remain limited,” Commerzbank Research wrote on Tuesday. “We continue to see gold fundamentally well-supported, but it is clear that the momentum we saw particularly in the first quarter has dissipated. This is also evident in the fact that gold traded ‘sideways’ despite significantly increased US rate cut expectations since April,” the note said.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1%. Silver also gained while palladium and platinum declined.

--With assistance from Laura Avetisyan and Yihui Xie.