Retail spending jumps in July

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Consumers took advantage of summer sales promotions in July to buy goods before new tariffs on imports took effect this month, according to a report from the National Retail Federation.

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up a seasonally adjusted 1.45% month over month, compared with a decrease of 0.33% in June. On an unadjusted, yearly basis, sales were up 5.93%, compared with an increase of 3.19% in June. The gains were the biggest monthly increase since the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor began tracking retail sales in 2022.

“We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables,” said Mathew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. “Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.”

He was referring to the July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statics, which showed that the U.S. added 73,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose slightly, to 4.2%, from 4.1% in June. Economists had expected job growth of at least 100,000, according to reports. The BLS also revised its job growth down sharply for May and June.

Sales at grocery and beverage stores were up 1.43% on a seasonally adjusted, month-to-month basis in July and were up 5.42% year-over year on an unadjusted basis, according to the NRF report. In June, the NRF report found that sales at grocery and beverage stores were down 0.13% on a seasonally adjusted, monthly basis, and up 2.59% year-over-year, unadjusted.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report, powered by Affinity Solutions, tallies real credit card spending, unlike the survey data used by the Census Department, which is expected to release its July retail sales report this Friday. The government’s monthly Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for July are also expected this week.

The NRF July retail sales data got a boost from several big retail sales events, including Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals, Target Circle Week, and other mid-summer promotions, according to reports.

“There is some tariff inflation bleeding through,” said Steve Liesman, senior economics reporter, CNBC, in a report on the NRF data. “It’s a very mixed picture, and it’s very choppy.”

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