Commentary: Trump is reviving crony capitalism

If you’re a CEO aiming to do business in the Trump era, set aside a slush fund for paying tribute to the Decider-in-Chief.

Okay, so maybe they’re not bribes, exactly. But Trump is essentially extorting certain companies to get things he wants from them. Clever CEOs are playing along, whether shareholders like it or not.

Exhibit A consists of Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), which are basically buying export licenses from the Trump administration so they can sell semiconductors in China. Both companies have agreed to pay the US government 15% of their revenues from chip sales in China in exchange for the right to sell there.

“My political head is spinning again with this new pay-to-play plan with Nvidia and AMD,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, wrote in an Aug. 11 analysis. “I pray for the sake of American free market capitalism that it stops here."

The Nvidia and AMD deals immediately bring to mind competitor Intel (INTC), which hasn’t yet agreed to cough up an export toll. Here’s a safe guess: It, too, will pay a similar fee for similar privileges.

At the moment, Intel is doing damage control. On Aug. 7, Trump directly attacked CEO Lip-Bu Tan, saying on social media that he “must resign, immediately.” Trump and some other Republicans seem to be concerned that Tan had improper connections with China’s military at another firm he ran until 2021.

Tan, a US citizen, now plans to meet with Trump to demonstrate his commitment to American interests, according to the Wall Street Journal. Fine. But that’s probably not what Trump is looking for. Trump has a feral instinct for detecting vulnerability in adversaries and using that leverage to extract measurable gains. He’ll want something more tangible from Tan and Intel than reassurances. Trump’s favorite currency is money. Intel probably has no choice but to pay.

Nvidia’s 15% gratuity to the government for chip sales to China will cost the firm about $3 billion per year. The company’s stock dipped on the news, then drifted up. Investors may have first thought only of the bottom line, then decided the payment would be better than losing chip sales to China completely. The hit to AMD would be smaller because its China sales are lower. AMD stock also dipped then rose following the news. Intel stock rose on news of Tan’s chat with Trump, as buyers hope the company’s damage-control effort pays off.

Trump has engineered this whole scenario. In April, Trump tightened restrictions on US chip sales to China, essentially blocking the sale of certain chips. Nvidia said that move would cost the company $5.5 billion in lost revenue. Then, in July, Trump reversed himself and decided to allow such chip sales to China.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has met several times with Trump during the last several months and has become an aggressive advocate for policies that benefit his company. When Trump changed his position in mid-July, it looked as if Huang had simply convinced Trump it was the right move. But the 15% gratuity now makes it look as if a deal was in the works that gave Trump some additional government revenue to crow about.

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Crony capitalism is a system in which the rich and well-connected get their way because they have personal sway with decision makers. The Gilded Age, or “robber baron” era of the late 1800s was perhaps the peak of crony capitalism in the United States. One result was the massive concentration of wealth among leading industrialists, which eventually led to the union movement, the graduated income tax, and much stronger regulation of business.

We’re not back to the robber baron days — yet. But Trump clearly favors CEOs and companies that do his bidding and help him boast of what he considers victories. Trump often dangles the bait himself. And he clearly realizes that his authority to impose tariffs unilaterally gives him a certain power over CEOs, companies, and even entire countries.

Trump threatened Apple with steep tariffs on its imported products earlier this year, unless it started making the iPhone and other products in the United States. That would double or triple the cost of an iPhone, making it financially ruinous. But CEO Tim Cook met with Trump recently to tout other domestic investments. That led to a splashy made-in-America “announcement” with Cook at the White House on Aug. 6, the kind of publicity stunt Trump revels in.

Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances

Trump refused approval for a deal crucial to Paramount’s finances until the company agreed to a generous legal settlement involving its CBS subsidiary and canceled the show of comedian Stephen Colbert, a vocal Trump critic. Then Trump’s regulators approved the deal. Paramount did what Trump wanted and got the favor it was seeking.

Trump has browbeaten Coca-Cola into making soda with real cane sugar, perhaps to reward sugar-industry barons who happen to be political supporters. He has muscled a dozen big law firms into doing pro bono work for his pet causes. Many big companies have rolled back diversity and inclusion policies because Trump finds them offensive. In many cases those firms moved preemptively, on their own, simply to avoid the possibility that Trump would threaten their federal contracts or try to drum up a consumer boycott against them.

Trump’s method of favor-trading is the velvet glove: seek back-scratching deals first, then attack if he doesn’t get them. CEOs are figuring out that it’s better to work with Trump behind the scenes than go through the whole painful process of refusing Trump’s demands, facing a Trump threat, watching their stock tank, trying to make nice with Trump, and then agreeing to some kind of face-saving deal anyway. Nvidia’s Huang is the model Trump-whisperer, making concessions that seem like win-wins and bypassing the confrontational part of the cycle. More CEOs are likely to follow.

There are obvious risks. Some of these deals, such as the export gratuities, could be illegal and overturned by the courts, causing more uncertainty for firms than they might face otherwise. CEOs who bed down with Trump may also be betting too heavily on one party and pay the consequences if the other party ever regains power. Their brands could also suffer, as Elon Musk’s Tesla has, if consumers begin to view CEOs or their companies as partisan operators.

But for now, the money move is to play Trump's game, because it's the only game in town.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.

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