China Commerce Ministry Expert Sees Uncertainty Despite US Truce

Trade ties between the world’s two biggest economies remain vulnerable to uncertainty even though President Donald Trump extended a pause for elevated tariffs on Chinese goods for another three months, according to a senior researcher at the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing.

A better outcome for China would include a mechanism to ensure both sides make good on bilateral agreements, said Zhou Mi, an expert at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank that operates under the aegis of the ministry directly involved in the trade talks.

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The Trump administration “frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,” Zhou said in an interview on Tuesday.

“This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries,” he said.

The measured tone is a reminder of the threats that linger as China and the US try to hammer out a more lasting agreement. With ties still in flux, companies will likely find it difficult to plan for long-term development, or accurately assess potential returns and risks, Zhou added.

Trump’s order, signed just before a tariff hike set for Tuesday, prolonged the truce through Nov. 10. The decision came weeks after negotiators from the two countries agreed to a preliminary agreement on the delay in Sweden.

Despite the pause, US tariffs on Chinese goods are already at 55% on average, much higher than the rates imposed on other countries. It’s a discrepancy that’s caused a slump in shipments to America this year even as Chinese exports soared to other markets.

Ideally, Zhou said, China would like to bring US tariffs down through negotiations to their level prior to Trump’s first term as president, which was at the most-favored-nation rate in low single digits.

Restrictions in other areas — such as investment, technology collaboration and cultural exchange — should also be reduced to “lower the costs of cooperation,” he said.

Importantly, stable institutional safeguards need to be established, to “ensure that current commitments and mutual agreements are fully implemented and minimize the chances of major changes or disruptions in the future,” Zhou added.

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