President Trump’s new import taxes seem very likely to boost prices for thousands of everyday products. Just not yet.

When the inflation data for June came out in mid-July, notable jumps in the price levels of many imported products suggested tariff inflation had arrived, as many economists have been forecasting. But the July data, released Aug. 12, shows a reversal in some of those price hikes, which is unexpected.

The following charts show that some price hikes in product categories dominated by imports have abated, at least for one month. In five key categories — appliances, clothing, furniture, sporting goods, and toys — substantial price increases from May to June reversed the following month. If the higher cost of tariffs was flowing freely into the retail economy, those price hikes would have continued in July.

Rising inflation is still a concern. Though the annual inflation rate stayed steady in July at 2.7%, there were still worrisome upward price pressures. “Core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.1% annual rate, the most in six months. Costlier medical care helped push services inflation up by 3.8% year over year. Falling gasoline prices help explain why overall inflation rose by less than core inflation, which doesn’t include gasoline.

There are still signs of tariff inflation. The cost of tools and footwear, which are mostly imported products, jumped during the last two months. Coffee prices rose 2.3% from June to July and are up 14.5% during the last 12 months. Part of that is likely due to tariffs, though other supply-chain issues are also a factor.

Read more: July CPI breakdown: Consumers feel the crunch of accelerating inflation

The Trump tariffs are only beginning to filter into the economy, and for now, the tariff effects are “messy,” according to Oxford Economics. “There are clear signs tariffs are pushing a range of goods prices higher, but some major tariffed items, including autos and apparel, have yet to show much impact,” the forecasting firm explained in an Aug. 12 report.

American importers paying the tariffs are handling the higher costs in a variety of different ways, making it difficult to generalize how Trump’s new taxes are affecting the overall economy. Some importers massively stocked up before the Trump tariffs went into effect and are still selling pre-tariff inventory. Others are eating the costs temporarily, which is cutting into profits at some companies. It’s also possible that consumers feeling pinched are cutting back on purchases, with slack demand keeping prices in check.

Most economists still expect the Trump tariffs to stoke inflation and cause substantial price hikes in many product categories. The average import tax on some $3 trillion worth of goods has risen from 2.5% before Trump took office to about 19%. Trump brags about new tariff revenue flowing to the US Treasury, but that is mostly new taxes paid by American businesses and consumers, and there’s no way to suppress the economic harm higher taxes cause.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

“One can observe a gathering pace of inflation inside the core as goods prices continue to increase,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, explained in an Aug. 12 analysis. “Investors and firm managers should prepare for thinner margins and rising inflation throughout the remainder of this year and into next.”

That means moderating July prices in some categories may turn out to be an aberration.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.

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