Norway Holds Key Rate, Keeps Prospect of More Easing in 2025

Norway’s central bank kept borrowing costs steady after a surprise cut in June and reiterated its plan to extend easing later this year.

Norges Bank kept the key deposit rate at 4.25% on Thursday — matching the forecast of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

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It repeated that the key rate would be lowered further “in the course of 2025,” with no new projections or interest-rate outlook produced for the interim meeting.

“A restrictive monetary policy is still needed,” Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. “At the same time, we do not want to restrain the economy more than needed. In June, we began a prudent easing of monetary policy, and it will likely be appropriate to continue with a cautious normalization of the policy rate ahead.”

Norges Bank has aligned more with its developed-world peers since June, when it pivoted earlier than expected to reducing restraint on the energy-exporting economy from the highest level in more than 16 years.

With core inflation remaining stubbornly high and the krone giving up recent gains, the bar was seen as too high for Norwegian officials to resume rate reductions already this month.

The krone, the third-worst performer over the last month among G-10 currencies, rose slightly following the news, trading 0.3% higher at 11.8961 versus the euro at 10:11 a.m. in Oslo.

Traders in overnight swaps now price in 22 basis points of rate cuts at September’s meeting, with 43 basis points of loosening seen by year-end.

Still, the growth in consumer prices is forecast to moderate and the labor market is showing signs of softening. That prompted policymakers in Oslo in June to predict two more rate cuts this year and further easing to a terminal level of 3% “towards the end of 2028.”

Norway’s move comes as the Riksbank in neighboring Sweden is also seen keeping rates on hold next week while signaling more cutting to come. The Bank of England decreased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4% this month, while the European Central Bank is expected to wait until at least December to deliver another reduction.

--With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Harumi Ichikura, Stephen Treloar and Kari Lundgren.

(Updates with market reaction starting in seventh paragraph.)

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