Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 futures rise as retail sales climb, rate-cut bets cool

US stock futures were mixed on Friday as Wall Street tempered its rate-cut hopes while July's retail sales advanced. Traders were also awaiting Friday's meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, looking for clues on how the outcome could steer markets.

Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) rose around 0.6%, with the index's first record since December in sight again. Futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) rose 0.1%, and futures attached to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell below the flatline.

US Census Bureau data released Friday morning showed retail sales data rose 0.5% in July from the prior month. That was less than the 0.6% gain expected by economists, but still viewed as a solid advance after a sharp pullback in consumer spending this spring.

A reading on consumer sentiment is also on the docket later Friday morning.

Stocks wobbled on Thursday, ending a two-day rally sparked by investor confidence that an interest rate cut in September was nearly certain. Doubts about a significant cut at the Fed's next policy meeting crept in after July's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected.

Major Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) stock soared on Friday before the bell after a regulatory filing showed Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) bought 5 million shares in the company.

Intel (INTC) shares also jumped premarket Friday on news that the US government is considering taking a stake in the company. President Trump met with Intel's CEO on Monday after calling on him to resign the previous week.

And Applied Materials (AMAT) stock sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks.

Retail sales rose 0.5% in July from the prior month, according to data from the US Census Bureau released Friday — marking the second monthly gain in a row, as consumer spending steadies following a dramatic drop in earlier in the year.

Still, the jump was less than the 0.6% gain expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales were up 0.2%, also less than the 0.3% projected.

An even narrower slice of retail sales called the “control group” — a more precise measure of consumer spending that excludes certain sales such as those from office supply and tobacco stores — climbed 0.5%, ahead of the 0.4% expected.

Retail sales rebounded in June, a sign that consumer spending habits were remaining resilient despite President Trump's tariffs.

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban writes in today's Morning Brief:

The push and pull of conflicting data sets and the crosscurrents of the Fed's dual mission were on full display this week. And so was the specter of stagflation.

Producer prices surged in July, heating up far ahead of forecasts and offering an uncomfortable surprise of mounting pricing pressures on their way to consumers. At the same time, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, signaling low layoffs.

But the reading also suggested people on the hunt for jobs are having a tough time. Firings aren't ramping up, but neither are hirings — which the latest jobs report and its revisions made quite clear.

The data didn't spark a second-guessing of a coming rate cut in September. But the market blinked. Odds of the Fed holding firm next month increased from 0% on Wednesday to 9% on Thursday after the releases, according to data from the CME Group. And the chances of a jumbo cut of 50 basis points in September have evaporated.

Things change fast, but the main takeaway hasn't changed: Markets are still pricing in over a 90% chance the central bank will reduce rates when officials meet again.

Read more here.

Economic data: Retail sales (July); Export prices (July); Industrial production (July); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (August preliminary)

Earnings: No notable earnings.

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

'Striking while the iron is hot'

Investors want rate cut 'validation,' but the Fed's dilemma remains

Applied Materials' shares sink on weak China demand, tariff risks

UnitedHealth jumps as Buffett's Berkshire buys 5M shares

BofA's Hartnett sees profit-taking in stocks after Jackson Hole

AI exacerbates tech divide with smaller stocks languishing

A trader's guide to the Alaska talks between Trump and Putin

China's economy slows in July on tariffs, weak property market

Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks.

Reuters reports:

The Santa-Clara, California-based company's forecast comes after similar tariff warnings from ASML Holding, the world's biggest supplier of chip-making equipment, last month.

CEO Gary Dickerson flagged lower visibility and increased uncertainty in the near-term, citing \\"wide-ranging implications for the semiconductor industry\\" from the dynamic policy environment, during a post-earnings investor call.

China, Applied Materials' top revenue source in the July quarter, accounting for 35% of sales, has emerged as a growing risk as U.S. export restrictions weigh on new orders for chipmaking tool suppliers.

\\"China volatility is significantly clouding visibility into core earnings potential both geopolitically and cyclically,\\" Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note.

Read more here.

UnitedHealth Group stock rose 12% before the bell on Friday after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) acquired 5 million shares in the company.

A regulatory filing showed the purchase on Thursday.

Reuters reports:

Billionaire investor Buffett owned about 1.18 million shares in UnitedHealth between 2006 and 2009, before selling his entire stake in 2010 amid a broader retreat from health insurers.

The investment comes as UnitedHealth faces soaring medical costs, federal investigations, the fallout of the killing of a top executive and a cyberattack last year.

Read more here.

Scroll to Top