Stock market today: Dow eyes record on UnitedHealth surge, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as rate-cut bets cool
US stocks were mixed on Friday as Wall Street tempered its rate-cut hopes amid economic data this week showing higher-than-expected wholesale inflation and a rise in July retail sales. Traders were also awaiting Friday's meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, looking for clues on how the outcome could steer markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.4%, with the index's first record since December in sight. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.2% after President Trump said he would soon announce tariffs on semiconductor imports.
US Census Bureau data released Friday morning showed retail sales rose 0.5% in July from the prior month. That was less than the 0.6% gain expected by economists, but still viewed as a solid advance after a sharp pullback in consumer spending this spring.
Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment deteriorated in August, falling for the first time in four months as inflation expectations jumped in the longer-term.
On Thursday, stocks had wobbled, ending a two-day rally sparked by investor confidence that an interest rate cut in September was nearly certain. Doubts about a significant cut at the Fed's next policy meeting crept in after July's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected.
Major Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) stock soared on Friday after a regulatory filing showed Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) bought 5 million shares in the company.
Intel (INTC) shares jumped Friday after a Bloomberg report said the Trump administration is considering taking a stake in chipmaker, using funds from the US CHIPS Act. President Trump met with Intel's CEO on Monday after calling on him to resign the previous week.
And Applied Materials (AMAT) stock sank 14% after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts due to sluggish demand in China, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks.
Chip stocks dropped Friday after President Trump said he will set tariffs on semiconductors as soon as next week.
\\"I'll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say, chips,\\" Trump told reporters Friday while aboard Air Force One while traveling to Alaska to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, Reuters reported.
Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) fell more than 1%, while Micron (MU) dropped more than 3%.
Trump said earlier this month that semiconductor companies building out their domestic manufacturing footprint — this includes the world's leading contract chip manufacturer, Taiwanese firm TSMC (TSM) — would be exempt from his planned 100% tariffs on chips, commentary that sent chip stocks up. But Friday he implied that exemption may only be temporary.
\\"I'm going to have a rate that is going to be lower at the beginning - that gives them a chance to come in and build - and very high after a certain period of time,\\" he said.
US consumer sentiment deteriorated in August, falling for the first time in four months. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 last month from a reading of 61.7 in July. It was also less than the 62 reading expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation,” wrote Joanne Hsu, the director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers.
Consumer sentiment had improved in June and July after plummeting in the spring as Americans worried about the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. In May, the index showed sentiment at its second-lowest level on record as consumers expressed concerns over long-term inflation, fueled by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies. Sentiment improved in June as Trump dialed back some of his aggressive stances on tariffs.
“Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April when reciprocal tariffs were announced and then paused,” Hsu said. “However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.”
US stocks were mixed on Friday at the open as Wall Street tempered its hopes for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, as economic data this week showed higher than expected wholesale inflation and a rise in July retail sales.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.5%, putting the index on track for its first record since December. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose less than 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell below the flatline.
Intel (INTC) stock spiked more than 7% Thursday and continued to climb 3% before the market open on Friday, following a report that the US government is considering taking a stake in the troubled chipmaker.
Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is in talks with Intel about the deal, which would help the company complete its Ohio factory expansion that had been put on hold.
The report follows a meeting between President Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan earlier this week, which came after the president called for the CEO’s resignation due to his ties with China.
\\"As Intel’s prospects have dimmed, the idea of support (governmental or otherwise) has gained traction, understandable given the company, for better or worse, remains the only US-headquartered prospect for leading edge semiconductor chips and processes; it seems like Trump may have been persuaded to see the light,\\" Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note to investors Friday.
It's not the first time the Trump administration has allegedly floated ideas to prop up Intel. In February, a news report said the US was pitching proposals to its rival TSMC to help support its turnaround by establishing a joint venture with Intel.
Read more here.
Retail sales rose 0.5% in July from the prior month, according to data from the US Census Bureau released Friday — marking the second monthly gain in a row, as consumer spending steadies following a dramatic drop in earlier in the year.
Still, the jump was less than the 0.6% gain expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales were up 0.2%, also less than the 0.3% projected.
An even narrower slice of retail sales called the “control group” — a more precise measure of consumer spending that excludes certain sales such as those from office supply and tobacco stores — climbed 0.5%, ahead of the 0.4% expected.
Retail sales rebounded in June, a sign that consumer spending habits were remaining resilient despite President Trump's tariffs.
Read more here.
Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban writes in today's Morning Brief:
The push and pull of conflicting data sets and the crosscurrents of the Fed's dual mission were on full display this week. And so was the specter of stagflation.
Producer prices surged in July, heating up far ahead of forecasts and offering an uncomfortable surprise of mounting pricing pressures on their way to consumers. At the same time, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, signaling low layoffs.
But the reading also suggested people on the hunt for jobs are having a tough time. Firings aren't ramping up, but neither are hirings — which the latest jobs report and its revisions made quite clear.
The data didn't spark a second-guessing of a coming rate cut in September. But the market blinked. Odds of the Fed holding firm next month increased from 0% on Wednesday to 9% on Thursday after the releases, according to data from the CME Group. And the chances of a jumbo cut of 50 basis points in September have evaporated.
Things change fast, but the main takeaway hasn't changed: Markets are still pricing in over a 90% chance the central bank will reduce rates when officials meet again.
Read more here.
Economic data: Retail sales (July); Export prices (July); Industrial production (July); University of Michigan consumer sentiment (August preliminary)
Earnings: No notable earnings.
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
'Striking while the iron is hot'
Investors want rate cut 'validation,' but the Fed's dilemma remains
Applied Materials' shares sink on weak China demand, tariff risks
UnitedHealth jumps as Buffett's Berkshire buys 5M shares
BofA's Hartnett sees profit-taking in stocks after Jackson Hole
AI exacerbates tech divide with smaller stocks languishing
A trader's guide to the Alaska talks between Trump and Putin
China's economy slows in July on tariffs, weak property market
Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks.
Reuters reports:
The Santa-Clara, California-based company's forecast comes after similar tariff warnings from ASML Holding, the world's biggest supplier of chip-making equipment, last month.
CEO Gary Dickerson flagged lower visibility and increased uncertainty in the near-term, citing \\"wide-ranging implications for the semiconductor industry\\" from the dynamic policy environment, during a post-earnings investor call.
China, Applied Materials' top revenue source in the July quarter, accounting for 35% of sales, has emerged as a growing risk as U.S. export restrictions weigh on new orders for chipmaking tool suppliers.
\\"China volatility is significantly clouding visibility into core earnings potential both geopolitically and cyclically,\\" Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note.
Read more here.
UnitedHealth Group stock rose 12% before the bell on Friday after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) acquired 5 million shares in the company.
A regulatory filing showed the purchase on Thursday.
Reuters reports:
Billionaire investor Buffett owned about 1.18 million shares in UnitedHealth between 2006 and 2009, before selling his entire stake in 2010 amid a broader retreat from health insurers.
The investment comes as UnitedHealth faces soaring medical costs, federal investigations, the fallout of the killing of a top executive and a cyberattack last year.
Read more here.