Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq stall with Ukraine's fate, Fed policy in focus

US stocks wavered on Monday as investors eyed risks around a high-stakes US-Ukraine meeting, kicking off a week dominated by a Federal Reserve speech that could define the outlook for interest rates.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell just below the flat line, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was also roughly flat, coming off a second straight winning week for the major gauges. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.1%.

Geopolitics are front of mind as Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies head for talks with President Trump in Washington, D.C., with the Ukrainian president facing US pressure to accept a peace deal that favors Russia. Wall Street is watching for more details on what Trump agreed with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at their Alaska summit.

But markets are also looking ahead to the main event this week, Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. His speech — likely to be Powell's last as Fed chair — will be closely followed for clues to the path of monetary policy, after inflation and retail data prompted Wall Street to temper rate cut hopes last week. The annual gathering of central bankers often brings signals of key shifts in Fed thinking, and its policymakers are facing a dilemma over what action to take.

The release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting on Wednesday will set the stage for Jackson Hole in a week light on economic data.

Meanwhile, second quarter earnings season is winding down, with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Blink Charging (BLNK) reports on Monday's docket. With most of the reports in, the results have been mostly positive. Highly anticipated earnings from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW) are due later in the week, likely to provide insights into consumer spending

US stocks stalled at the open as investors awaited a high-stakes US-Ukraine meeting later on Monday, kickstarting a week leading up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's most important policy speech of the year in Jackson Hole Friday.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell just below the flat line, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was also roughly flat, coming off a second straight winning week for the major gauges. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.1%.

Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports:

On Wall Street and in Washington, D.C., confusion reigns over how the Trump administration will pull off a potential public offering for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year.

The Trump administration has floated the idea of selling down the government stakes in the two giants, a move that would amount to the largest IPO in history under current values being weighed. The precise mechanics of such a deal have yet to be clarified.

Plans being discussed within the administration, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, could involve a 5% to 15% sale of Fannie and Freddie shares at a combined $500 billion valuation or higher. But to attract investors, analysts and housing experts see some problems that need to be solved along the way.

In the meantime, President Trump is still weighing all of his options. That means plans could change. He has met in recent weeks with CEOs for some of the biggest Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, and Citigroup's Jane Fraser, to discuss the mortgage giants.

Read more here.

Solar stocks continued rallying in premarket trading on Monday after the Trump administration clarified new eligibility requirements for tax credits that weren't as burdensome as feared.

Shares of residential solar company Sunrun (RUN) have gained 38% since Friday. SolarEdge shares rose 19%, and First Solar (FSLR) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) stocks are both up more than 10%.

Bloomberg reports:

Under Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill signed into law July 4, solar and wind developments are eligible for tax credits if they begin construction within 12 months.

Until now, projects were considered eligible for the credits if developers had spent at least 5% of the planned projects cost. The new rule eliminates the 5% standard for large solar and wind projects, instead requiring developers prove “physical work of a significant nature” has been taking place on an ongoing basis. However, solar facilities not greater than 1.5 megawatts can still use the 5% of planned project expense standard to qualify.

“There was some expectation that the rule-making would make it very onerous to safe harbor tax credits, but this seems pretty straightforward,” said Robert Barnett, a clean energy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is particularly favorable news to the residential and small commercial solar companies.”

Read more here.

Economic data: NAHB homebuilder sentiment (August)

Earnings: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:

Powell's dilemma heading into his final Jackson Hole speech

Trump eyes Fannie and Freddie IPO, but the plan faces hurdles

What to watch this week: Powell at Jackson Hole. Walmart earnings

China's $11 trillion stock market is a headache for both Xi and Trump

US warns that India is 'cozying up' to Russia

Tesla almost halves UK lease fee as sales slump: Report

Goldman: S&P 500 earnings have blown past forecasts

Bond market's rate-cut bets hit decisive stretch with Powell

US-listed shares in Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) are gaining before the bell, as investors welcome a US boost for its flagship Wegovy.

Novo is also reportedly planning to hold off from charging more at next year's launch of pill versions of its weight-loss injections, a departure from usual practice as President Trump puts pressure on pharma companies to cut US prices.

Reuters reports:

Shares in Novo Nordisk rose on Monday, after the Danish drugmaker got US approval for its weight-loss drug Wegovy to treat a serious liver condition. That was positive news for Novo which has lost more than one-third of its market value in recent weeks. ...

Three weeks ago, investors wiped $70 billion off its market value, after Novo — which became Europe's most valuable listed company following the launch of Wegovy in 2021 — issued a profit warning and named a company veteran as new CEO.

On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted accelerated approval for Wegovy to treat metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or MASH, making it the first GLP-1 class therapy cleared for the progressive liver condition that affects around 5% of adults in the United States.

Read more here.

The investing world is gearing up for Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole — the most important Fed monetary policy speech of the year, says Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland.

The Fed chair's appearance dominates the week's calendar for markets, which also brings a clutch of retail giant earnings.

Myles reports:

The investing world will turn its attention to northwestern Wyoming in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to give his most important policy speech of the year on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Held each year at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting often serves as a crucial set piece in the Fed chair's calendar that signals key shifts in the central bank's thinking. ...

As Powell gets set to end his time leading the Fed, the president has bestowed on him a nickname: \\"Too Late.\\"

\\"The diversity of views on the FOMC is one of the great virtues of our system,\\" Powell said. \\"Despite differing views on these questions and others, we have a long institutional tradition of finding common ground in coalescing around a policy stance.\\"

In a year, a new Fed chair will address the crowd at Jackson Hole. Interest rates will likely be lower. But how this new chair views these tenets of central banking will be the more important answer for the future of the Federal Reserve.

Read more here.

President Trump has recently offered a few choice words on the work from Goldman Sachs' economics team, led by long-time economist Jan Hatzius.

The team is unlikely to garner some praise from Trump today. Here's what Hatzius and his team served up in a new note on Monday morning:

\\"After the recent downward revisions to payrolls, our estimate of trend job growth is now clearly below even that low bar at 30k per month. And while the picture could change again for better or worse, future revisions to job growth are more likely to be negative because the birth-death model is likely a bit too generous, changes in trend payroll growth can initially be partially misattributed to changes in seasonal factors, revisions to the raw payrolls data tended to be negative in past slowdowns, data from ADP raise doubts about officially reported payroll growth in healthcare, and the household survey is now overstating immigration and employment gains.

The outlook for job growth has dimmed too. Like the slowdown in activity growth this year, the slowdown in job growth appears to have arisen from more than just the direct effects of trade and immigration policy changes. We are particularly worried that “catch-up hiring” in a few industries now appears over and job growth outside those industries has fallen to around zero. And while job openings remain at a decent level, they started to decline again earlier this year.\\"

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