Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver with Ukraine's fate, Fed policy in focus
US stocks wavered on Monday as investors turned their focus to a high-stakes US-Ukraine meeting, kicking off a week dominated by a Federal Reserve speech that could define the outlook for interest rates.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose above the flatline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) flipped between negative and positive territory, coming off a second straight winning week for the major gauges. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was also little changed.
Geopolitics are front of mind as Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies spoke with President Trump in Washington, D.C., with the Ukrainian president facing US pressure to accept a peace deal that favors Russia. The meeting follows Trump's encounter with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at their Alaska summit.
But markets are also looking ahead to the main event this week, Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. His speech — likely to be Powell's last as Fed chair — will be closely followed for clues to the path of monetary policy, after inflation and retail data prompted Wall Street to temper rate cut hopes last week. The annual gathering of central bankers often brings signals of key shifts in Fed thinking, and its policymakers are facing a dilemma over what action to take.
The release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting on Wednesday will set the stage for Jackson Hole in a week light on economic data.
Meanwhile, second quarter earnings season is winding down, with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Blink Charging (BLNK) reports on Monday's docket. With most of the reports in, the results have been mostly positive. Highly anticipated earnings from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW) are due later in the week, likely to provide insights into consumer spending.
Shares of Intel (INTC) fell to session lows after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration was contemplating a 10% stake in the chip maker. Last week shares jumped after reports that Trump was considering using funds from the Chips act to invest in the company.
Intel (INTC) shares dropped nearly 4% to session lows on Monday after Bloomberg reported the White House is eyeing a 10% stake in the chipmaker.
Last week, the stock popped after a report indicated President Trump's intent to invest in the company after meeting with CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who has been at the job since March.
Trump had previously publicly called for Lip-Bu Tan to resign, calling him \\"highly conflicted.\\"
Intel is undergoing a turnaround plan after years of lagging its peers in the chip and AI space.
Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports:
The slowdown in the US job market isn't over — and it may get worse.
That's the warning from Goldman Sachs (GS) economists, who said hiring momentum has weakened more than previously thought. Revisions to earlier data suggest payroll growth is running at levels too low to sustain full employment.
\\"Our estimate of trend job growth is now clearly below even that low bar at 30k per month,\\" Goldman Sachs economics analysts David Mericle and Jessica Rindels wrote. \\"Future revisions to job growth are more likely to be negative,\\" they said, citing weakness in areas like healthcare payrolls, seasonal hiring, and the way government models account for new businesses.
The sobering outlook came just days after President Trump criticized the bank's team on Truth Social for being \\"wrong\\" about past market calls and too negative about the economy.
Read more here.
The stock market has been all about large market capitalization companies for over a decade.
Dating back to 2015, Bank of America Securities Head of US equity and Quantitive Strategy Savita Subramanian found that the largest 50 stocks in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) have outperformed the benchmark index by 73 percentage points. Subramanian points out the last notable run of similar outperformance for the 50 largest stocks in the index came in the late 1990s leading into the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
Subramanian thinks a similar tide shift might be coming to markets now.
\\"History would suggest there is more to go in cap-weighted dominance,\\" Subramanian wrote in a note to clients. \\"But if the Fed's next move is a rate cut, and if the Regime indicator is shifting to a Recovery, we think the run may be closer to done.\\"
BofA's \\"regime indicator,\\" which includes a variety of factors such as corporate earnings revisions, inflation data and economic growth projections, has started to point to the recovery phase. This combined with a Federal Reserve that markets believe will cut interest rates by at least half a percentage point before the end of year, is a positive setup for value stocks, Subramanian argues. And the largest stocks in the market right now are \\"anti value,\\"
\\"[Federal Reserve] easing has been accompanied by Mega caps lagging more than leading, and higher inflation should support a broadening of the S&P 500 beyond defensives/secular growth,\\" Subramanian wrote.
Shares of Soho House (SHCO) jumped as much as 16% on Monday after news that the private members club operator is set to go private, Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports.
Conley writes:
This caps off a year of speculation that the company was set to leave public markets after its 2021 debut.
Soho House, which operates more than 40 members-only clubs worldwide, is set to be taken private by hotel operator giant MCR Hotels in a deal worth $2.7 billion that will pay out investors at $9 per share — a premium of nearly 18% over where the stock closed on Friday before news of the deal became public.
Read the full story here.
Bitcoin miner and data center operator Terawulf (WULF) saw its stock jump nearly 11% after announcing that Google is taking a 14% stake in the company.
In return for the equity stake, Google is providing a backstop as Terawulf uses debt financing to expand a Lake Mariner data center campus in western New York, making it one of the largest campuses in the US. In connection with the project, Terawulf announced a $400 million debt offering Monday.
The new data center capacity will be leased by AI cloud provider Fluidstack.
The deal was first unveiled when the company released its second quarter earnings results last week. Terawulf initially said Google would provide a $1.8 billion backstop in exchange for an 8% stake in the company during its earnings call, but that figure was upped to $3.2 billion Monday.
CEO Paul Prager said its Lake Mariner campus will be one of the \\"cornerstone assets for the future of AI infrastructure.\\"
Terawulf is one of many bitcoin miners transitioning to provide AI infrastructure.
Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk (NVO) saw its US-listed shares gain more than 5% Monday after the open as the company said it would offer patients its diabetes drug Ozempic for less than half the price if they pay cash.
The move makes the medication more affordable for patients who don't have insurance coverage, though the reduced price still amounts to $499, keeping it out of reach for many Americans. Also on Monday, GoodRx announced it will begin selling both of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs for $499 a month.
Shares had climbed premarket Monday after the company said Friday it received approval from the FDA for its liver disease MASH.
Also boosting shares, Novo Nordisk reportedly will not charge more for pill versions of its weight-loss injections, which are expected to launch in 2026. This would be a departure from drugmakers' typical practice of charging more for new medications.
The moves come after President Trump has ramped up pressure on drugmakers to lower prices, though his tariffs could raise prices.
Read more here.
US stocks stalled at the market open as investors awaited a high-stakes US-Ukraine meeting, kickstarting a week leading up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's most important policy speech of the year in Jackson Hole on Friday.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell just below the flat line, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was also roughly flat, coming off a second straight winning week for the major gauges. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added nearly 0.1%.
Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports:
On Wall Street and in Washington, D.C., confusion reigns over how the Trump administration will pull off a potential public offering for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this year.
The Trump administration has floated the idea of selling down the government stakes in the two giants, a move that would amount to the largest IPO in history under current values being weighed. The precise mechanics of such a deal have yet to be clarified.
Plans being discussed within the administration, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, could involve a 5% to 15% sale of Fannie and Freddie shares at a combined $500 billion valuation or higher. But to attract investors, analysts and housing experts see some problems that need to be solved along the way.
In the meantime, President Trump is still weighing all of his options. That means plans could change. He has met in recent weeks with CEOs for some of the biggest Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, Bank of America's Brian Moynihan, and Citigroup's Jane Fraser, to discuss the mortgage giants.
Read more here.
Solar stocks continued rallying in premarket trading on Monday after the Trump administration clarified new eligibility requirements for tax credits that weren't as burdensome as feared.
Shares of residential solar company Sunrun (RUN) have gained 38% since Friday. SolarEdge shares rose 19%, and First Solar (FSLR) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) stocks are both up more than 10%.
Bloomberg reports:
Under Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill signed into law July 4, solar and wind developments are eligible for tax credits if they begin construction within 12 months.
Until now, projects were considered eligible for the credits if developers had spent at least 5% of the planned projects cost. The new rule eliminates the 5% standard for large solar and wind projects, instead requiring developers prove “physical work of a significant nature” has been taking place on an ongoing basis. However, solar facilities not greater than 1.5 megawatts can still use the 5% of planned project expense standard to qualify.
“There was some expectation that the rule-making would make it very onerous to safe harbor tax credits, but this seems pretty straightforward,” said Robert Barnett, a clean energy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is particularly favorable news to the residential and small commercial solar companies.”
Read more here.
Economic data: NAHB homebuilder sentiment (August)
Earnings: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:
Powell's dilemma heading into his final Jackson Hole speech
Trump eyes Fannie and Freddie IPO, but the plan faces hurdles
What to watch this week: Powell at Jackson Hole. Walmart earnings
China's $11 trillion stock market is a headache for both Xi and Trump
US warns that India is 'cozying up' to Russia
Tesla almost halves UK lease fee as sales slump: Report
Goldman: S&P 500 earnings have blown past forecasts
Bond market's rate-cut bets hit decisive stretch with Powell
US-listed shares in Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) are gaining before the bell, as investors welcome a US boost for its flagship Wegovy.
Novo is also reportedly planning to hold off from charging more at next year's launch of pill versions of its weight-loss injections, a departure from usual practice as President Trump puts pressure on pharma companies to cut US prices.
Reuters reports:
Shares in Novo Nordisk rose on Monday, after the Danish drugmaker got US approval for its weight-loss drug Wegovy to treat a serious liver condition. That was positive news for Novo which has lost more than one-third of its market value in recent weeks. ...
Three weeks ago, investors wiped $70 billion off its market value, after Novo — which became Europe's most valuable listed company following the launch of Wegovy in 2021 — issued a profit warning and named a company veteran as new CEO.
On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted accelerated approval for Wegovy to treat metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or MASH, making it the first GLP-1 class therapy cleared for the progressive liver condition that affects around 5% of adults in the United States.
Read more here.
The investing world is gearing up for Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole — the most important Fed monetary policy speech of the year, says Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland.
The Fed chair's appearance dominates the week's calendar for markets, which also brings a clutch of retail giant earnings.
Myles reports:
The investing world will turn its attention to northwestern Wyoming in the week ahead, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set to give his most important policy speech of the year on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Held each year at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting often serves as a crucial set piece in the Fed chair's calendar that signals key shifts in the central bank's thinking. ...
As Powell gets set to end his time leading the Fed, the president has bestowed on him a nickname: \\"Too Late.\\"
\\"The diversity of views on the FOMC is one of the great virtues of our system,\\" Powell said. \\"Despite differing views on these questions and others, we have a long institutional tradition of finding common ground in coalescing around a policy stance.\\"
In a year, a new Fed chair will address the crowd at Jackson Hole. Interest rates will likely be lower. But how this new chair views these tenets of central banking will be the more important answer for the future of the Federal Reserve.
Read more here.
President Trump has recently offered a few choice words on the work from Goldman Sachs' economics team, led by long-time economist Jan Hatzius.
The team is unlikely to garner some praise from Trump today. Here's what Hatzius and his team served up in a new note on Monday morning:
\\"After the recent downward revisions to payrolls, our estimate of trend job growth is now clearly below even that low bar at 30k per month. And while the picture could change again for better or worse, future revisions to job growth are more likely to be negative because the birth-death model is likely a bit too generous, changes in trend payroll growth can initially be partially misattributed to changes in seasonal factors, revisions to the raw payrolls data tended to be negative in past slowdowns, data from ADP raise doubts about officially reported payroll growth in healthcare, and the household survey is now overstating immigration and employment gains.
The outlook for job growth has dimmed too. Like the slowdown in activity growth this year, the slowdown in job growth appears to have arisen from more than just the direct effects of trade and immigration policy changes. We are particularly worried that “catch-up hiring” in a few industries now appears over and job growth outside those industries has fallen to around zero. And while job openings remain at a decent level, they started to decline again earlier this year.\\"